雪深再分析资料在锡林浩特地区的适用性评价
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摘要
利用欧洲中期预报中心(ECMWF)提供的1981-2010年ERA-Interim全球再分析积雪资料和ERA Interim/Land陆面模式积雪资料(简称ERA-Land),以锡林浩特地区(锡林浩特、阿巴嘎旗、东乌珠穆沁旗、西乌珠穆沁旗、正蓝旗、多伦县、那仁宝力格、克什克腾旗)共8个国家气象台站的观测资料为标准,计算其与再分析资料的相关系数、平均偏差、标准差比等统计参数。结合线性变化对比及质量指数和Brunke排名法,综合评估雪深再分析资料在锡林浩特地区的适用性。结果表明:ERA-Interim、ERA-Land资料均能很好地再现研究区积雪深度的季节变化趋势,但锡林浩特及其以东站点较西部站点再现能力更强;ERA-Land资料的模拟效果更优,且具有很好的稳定性,其在包括锡林浩特的研究区北部站点较南部吻合度高,质量较好;ERA-Land资料在锡林浩特地区大部分站点有质量变好趋势,那仁站最明显,在锡林浩特以南的正蓝旗站、多伦县站呈现变差趋势,但变率很小;ERA-Land资料在东乌珠穆沁旗站排序结果最优,正蓝旗最差。
The snow cover data from 1981 to 2010 in the ERA-Interim global reanalysis and the ERA Interim/Land model(ERA-Land) were provided by the European Mid-term Forecasting Center(ECMWF). The observing datasets from 8 national meteorological stations surrounded by Xilinhot(including Xilinhaote, Dongwuzhumuqi, Xiwuzhumuqi, Zhenglanqi, Duolun County, Narenbaolig, and Keshiketengqi) were taken as a standard to calculate the correlation coefficient, average deviation, standard deviation ratio and other statistical parameters of the reanalysis data, which were combined with the linear change comparison and the quality index and the Brunke ranking method. The applicability of the snow depth reanalysis was comprehensively evaluated in Xilinhaote area. The results showed that both the ERA-Interirn and ERA-Land data performed the seasonal variation trend of snow depth in the study area well, however, the latter one gained better simulation results and good stability. Xilinhot and its east site were more reproducible than the western site; ERA-Land data had better simulation effect and good stability, and the northern stations had better consistency than the southern stations; ERA-Land data in most of Xilinhot area had a good quality trend, Naren Station was the most obvious, in Zhenglanqi Station south of Xilinhot, Duolun County Station showed a trend of variation, but the variation rate was very small; The ranking results were the best in east Wuzhuqinqi station and the worst in Zhenglan banner.
The snow cover data from 1981 to 2010 in the ERA-Interim global reanalysis and the ERA Interim/Land model(ERA-Land) were provided by the European Mid-term Forecasting Center(ECMWF). The observing datasets from 8 national meteorological stations surrounded by Xilinhot(including Xilinhaote, Dongwuzhumuqi, Xiwuzhumuqi, Zhenglanqi, Duolun County, Narenbaolig, and Keshiketengqi) were taken as a standard to calculate the correlation coefficient, average deviation, standard deviation ratio and other statistical parameters of the reanalysis data, which were combined with the linear change comparison and the quality index and the Brunke ranking method. The applicability of the snow depth reanalysis was comprehensively evaluated in Xilinhaote area. The results showed that both the ERA-Interirn and ERA-Land data performed the seasonal variation trend of snow depth in the study area well, however, the latter one gained better simulation results and good stability. Xilinhot and its east site were more reproducible than the western site; ERA-Land data had better simulation effect and good stability, and the northern stations had better consistency than the southern stations; ERA-Land data in most of Xilinhot area had a good quality trend, Naren Station was the most obvious, in Zhenglanqi Station south of Xilinhot, Duolun County Station showed a trend of variation, but the variation rate was very small; The ranking results were the best in east Wuzhuqinqi station and the worst in Zhenglan banner.
引文
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[10]李光伟,敖杰,邢峰华,等.基于NVAP-M数据和ERA-I资料的海南岛大气可降水量时空分布特征分析[J].暴雨灾害,2018,(3):281-287.Li G W,Ao J,Xing F H,et al.Analysis of temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of atmospheric precipitable water in Hainan Island based on NVAP-M data and ERA-Idata[J].Rainstorm Disaster,2018,(3):281-287.(in Chinese)
[11]刘鹏飞,刘丹丹,梁丰,等.三套再分析降水资料在东北地区的适用性评价[J].水土保持研究,2018,25(4):215-221.Liu P F,Liu D D,Liang F,et al.Applicability evaluation of three sets of reanalysis of precipitation data in Northeast China[J].Soil and Water Conservation Research,2018,25(4):215-221.(in Chinese)
[12]高庆九,余汶樯,周小艳.基于再分析资料与观测资料的中国低温阈值变化特征研究[J].大气科学学报,2018,41(3):308-317.Gao Q J,Yu W Q,Zhou X Y.Study on the variation characteristics of low temperature threshold in China based on reanalysis data and observation data[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2018,41(3):308-317.(in Chinese)
[13]陈海山,许蓓.欧亚大陆冬季雪深的时空演变特征及其影响因子分析[J].地理科学,2012,32(2):129-135.Chen H S,Xu B.Analysis of temporal and spatial evolution characteristics and influence factors of winter snow depth in Eurasia[J].Geographical Science,2012,32(2):129-135.(in Chinese)
[14]张人禾,张若楠,左志燕.中国冬季积雪特征及欧亚大陆积雪对中国气候影响[J].应用气象学报,2016,27(5):513-526.Zhang R H,Zhang R N,Zuo Z Y.The characteristics of snow cover in winter in China and the impact of Eurasia snow on China's climate[J].Journal of Applied Meteorology,2016,27(5):513-526.(in Chinese)
[15]Khan V,Holko L,Rubinstein K,et al.Snow cover characteristics over the main Russian river basins as represented by reanalyses and measured data[J].Journal of Applied Meteorology&Climatology,2008,47(6):1819-1833.
[16]许蓓,陈海山,高楚杰.冬季雪深再分析资料在欧亚中高纬地区的适用性评价[J].气候与环境研究,2015,20(3):296-306.Xu B,Chen H S,Gao C J.Applicability evaluation of winter snow de-analysis data in the middle and high latitude regions of Europe and Asia[J].Climatic and Environmental Research,2015,20(3):296-306.(in Chinese)
[17]刘金平.中亚积雪时空分布的变化及其对关键气候要素的响应[D].北京:中国科学院大学,2015.Liu J P.Changes in the spatial and temporal distribution of snow in Central Asia and its response to key climatic factors[D].Beijing:University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,2015.(in Chinese)
[18]刘昊,宋海清,张超,等.ERA-Interim/Land积雪资料在内蒙古的初步评估[J].内蒙古科技与经济,2017,(2):50-53.Liu H,Song H Q,Zhang C,et al.Preliminary evaluation of ERA-Interim/Land snow data in Inner Mongolia[J].Inner Mongolia Science and Technology and Economy,2017,(2):50-53.(in Chinese)
[19]Lambert S,Mitchell H.The Canadian Meteorological Centre(CMC)global analyses(1991-1996):an evaluation by comparison with the ECMWF and NCEP analyses:research note[J].Atmosphere,1998,36(4):385-404.
[20]赵天保,符淙斌.应用探空观测资料评估几类再分析资料在中国区域的适用性[J].大气科学,2009,33(3):634-648.Zhao T B,Fu C B.Applicability of sounding observation data to evaluate the applicability of several types of reanalysis data in China[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2009,33(3):634-648.(in Chinese)
[21]李瑞青,吕世华,韩博,等.青藏高原东部三种再分析资料与地面气温观测资料的对比分析[J].高原气象,2012,31(6):1488-1502.Li R Q,Lv S H,Han B,et al.Comparative analysis of three reanalysis data and surface temperature observation data in the eastern Tibetan Plateau[J].Plateau Meteorology,2012,31(6):1488-1502.(in Chinese)
[22]高路,Karsten Schulz,陈兴伟,等.基于ERA-Interim再分析资料的中国极端气温分析[J].南水北调与水利科技,2014,(2):75-78.Gao L,Karsten S,Chen X W,et al.Analysis of extreme temperature in China based on ERA-Interim reanalysis data[J].South-to-North Water Transfer and Water Science and Technology,2014,(2):75-78.(in Chinese)
[23]赵天保,符淙斌.中国区域ERA-40、NCEP-2再分析资料与观测资料的初步比较与分析[J].气候与环境研究,2006,(1):14-32.Zhao T B,Fu C B.Preliminary comparison and analysis of reanalysis data and observation data of ERA-40 and NCEP-2 in China[J].Climatic and Environmental Research,2006,(1):14-32.(in Chinese)
[24]刘川,余晔,解晋,等.多套土壤温湿度资料在青藏高原的适用性[J].高原气象,2015,34(3):653-665.Liu C,Yu H,Xie J,et al.Applicability of multiple sets of soil temperature and humidity data in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau[J].Plateau Meteorology,2015,34(3):653-665.(in Chinese)
[25]于莉丽,钟珊珊,魏雪,等.锡林郭勒盟大雪、暴雪天气气候特征及分型[J].内蒙古气象,2014,(2):3-7.Yu L L,Zhong S S,Wei X,et al.Climatic characteristics and classification of heavy snow and blizzard weather in Xilingol League[J].Inner Mongolia Meteorology,2014,(2):3-7.(in Chinese)
[2]李斐,刘苗苗,王水献.2001-2013年开都河流域上游积雪时空分布特征及其对气象因子的响应[J].资源科学,2016,38(6):1160-1168.Li F,Liu M M,Wang S X.Temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of snow in the upper reaches of Kaidu River Basin from 2001 to 2013 and its response to meteorological factors[J].Resources Science,2016,38(6):1160-1168.(in Chinese)
[3]吕爱锋,贾绍凤,燕华云,等.三江源地区融雪径流时间变化特征与趋势分析[J].资源科学,2009,31(10):1740-1709.Lu A F,Jia S F,Yan H Y,et al.Analysis of temporal variation characteristics and trend of snowmelt runoff in Sanjiangyuan area[J].Resources Science,2009,31(10):1740-1709.(in Chinese)
[4]席小康,朱仲元,宋小园,等.锡林河流域融雪径流时间变化特征与成因分析[J].水土保持研究,2016,23(6):150-153.Xi X K,Zhu Z Y,Song X Y,et al.Time-varying characteristics and genesis analysis of snowmelt runoff in Xilin River Basin[J].Soil and Water Conservation Research,2016,23(6):150-153.(in Chinese)
[5]孙建勇,车涛,戴礼云,等.利用积雪衰减曲线分析山区雪水当量时空分布[J].遥感信息,2017,32(2):121-130.Sun J Y,Che T,Dai L Y,et al.Analysis of snow-water equivalent time-space distribution in mountainous areas using snow attenuation curve[J].Remote Sensing Information,2017,32(2):121-130.(in Chinese)
[6]赵天保,符淙斌,柯宗建,等.全球大气再分析资料的研究现状与进展[J].地球科学进展,2010,25(3):242-254.Zhao T B,Fu C B,Ke Z J,et al.Research status and progress of global atmospheric reanalysis data[J].Advance in Earth Sciences,2010,25(3):242-254.(in Chinese)
[7]Trenberth K E,Olson J G.An evaluation and intercomparison of global analyses from the national meteorological center and the European centre for medium range weather forecasts[J].Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,2010,69(9):1047-1056.
[8]Boyle J.Comparison of variability of the monthly mean temperature of the ECMWF and NCEP reanalyses and CCM3and CSM simulations[J].Office of Scientific&Technical Information Technical Reports,2000.
[9]高路,郝璐.ERA-Interim气温数据在中国区域的适用性评估[J].亚热带资源与环境学报,2014,(2):75-81.Gao L,Hao L.Applicability evaluation of ERA-Interim temperature data in China[J].Journal of Subtropical Resources and Environment,2014,(2):75-81.(in Chinese)
[10]李光伟,敖杰,邢峰华,等.基于NVAP-M数据和ERA-I资料的海南岛大气可降水量时空分布特征分析[J].暴雨灾害,2018,(3):281-287.Li G W,Ao J,Xing F H,et al.Analysis of temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of atmospheric precipitable water in Hainan Island based on NVAP-M data and ERA-Idata[J].Rainstorm Disaster,2018,(3):281-287.(in Chinese)
[11]刘鹏飞,刘丹丹,梁丰,等.三套再分析降水资料在东北地区的适用性评价[J].水土保持研究,2018,25(4):215-221.Liu P F,Liu D D,Liang F,et al.Applicability evaluation of three sets of reanalysis of precipitation data in Northeast China[J].Soil and Water Conservation Research,2018,25(4):215-221.(in Chinese)
[12]高庆九,余汶樯,周小艳.基于再分析资料与观测资料的中国低温阈值变化特征研究[J].大气科学学报,2018,41(3):308-317.Gao Q J,Yu W Q,Zhou X Y.Study on the variation characteristics of low temperature threshold in China based on reanalysis data and observation data[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2018,41(3):308-317.(in Chinese)
[13]陈海山,许蓓.欧亚大陆冬季雪深的时空演变特征及其影响因子分析[J].地理科学,2012,32(2):129-135.Chen H S,Xu B.Analysis of temporal and spatial evolution characteristics and influence factors of winter snow depth in Eurasia[J].Geographical Science,2012,32(2):129-135.(in Chinese)
[14]张人禾,张若楠,左志燕.中国冬季积雪特征及欧亚大陆积雪对中国气候影响[J].应用气象学报,2016,27(5):513-526.Zhang R H,Zhang R N,Zuo Z Y.The characteristics of snow cover in winter in China and the impact of Eurasia snow on China's climate[J].Journal of Applied Meteorology,2016,27(5):513-526.(in Chinese)
[15]Khan V,Holko L,Rubinstein K,et al.Snow cover characteristics over the main Russian river basins as represented by reanalyses and measured data[J].Journal of Applied Meteorology&Climatology,2008,47(6):1819-1833.
[16]许蓓,陈海山,高楚杰.冬季雪深再分析资料在欧亚中高纬地区的适用性评价[J].气候与环境研究,2015,20(3):296-306.Xu B,Chen H S,Gao C J.Applicability evaluation of winter snow de-analysis data in the middle and high latitude regions of Europe and Asia[J].Climatic and Environmental Research,2015,20(3):296-306.(in Chinese)
[17]刘金平.中亚积雪时空分布的变化及其对关键气候要素的响应[D].北京:中国科学院大学,2015.Liu J P.Changes in the spatial and temporal distribution of snow in Central Asia and its response to key climatic factors[D].Beijing:University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,2015.(in Chinese)
[18]刘昊,宋海清,张超,等.ERA-Interim/Land积雪资料在内蒙古的初步评估[J].内蒙古科技与经济,2017,(2):50-53.Liu H,Song H Q,Zhang C,et al.Preliminary evaluation of ERA-Interim/Land snow data in Inner Mongolia[J].Inner Mongolia Science and Technology and Economy,2017,(2):50-53.(in Chinese)
[19]Lambert S,Mitchell H.The Canadian Meteorological Centre(CMC)global analyses(1991-1996):an evaluation by comparison with the ECMWF and NCEP analyses:research note[J].Atmosphere,1998,36(4):385-404.
[20]赵天保,符淙斌.应用探空观测资料评估几类再分析资料在中国区域的适用性[J].大气科学,2009,33(3):634-648.Zhao T B,Fu C B.Applicability of sounding observation data to evaluate the applicability of several types of reanalysis data in China[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2009,33(3):634-648.(in Chinese)
[21]李瑞青,吕世华,韩博,等.青藏高原东部三种再分析资料与地面气温观测资料的对比分析[J].高原气象,2012,31(6):1488-1502.Li R Q,Lv S H,Han B,et al.Comparative analysis of three reanalysis data and surface temperature observation data in the eastern Tibetan Plateau[J].Plateau Meteorology,2012,31(6):1488-1502.(in Chinese)
[22]高路,Karsten Schulz,陈兴伟,等.基于ERA-Interim再分析资料的中国极端气温分析[J].南水北调与水利科技,2014,(2):75-78.Gao L,Karsten S,Chen X W,et al.Analysis of extreme temperature in China based on ERA-Interim reanalysis data[J].South-to-North Water Transfer and Water Science and Technology,2014,(2):75-78.(in Chinese)
[23]赵天保,符淙斌.中国区域ERA-40、NCEP-2再分析资料与观测资料的初步比较与分析[J].气候与环境研究,2006,(1):14-32.Zhao T B,Fu C B.Preliminary comparison and analysis of reanalysis data and observation data of ERA-40 and NCEP-2 in China[J].Climatic and Environmental Research,2006,(1):14-32.(in Chinese)
[24]刘川,余晔,解晋,等.多套土壤温湿度资料在青藏高原的适用性[J].高原气象,2015,34(3):653-665.Liu C,Yu H,Xie J,et al.Applicability of multiple sets of soil temperature and humidity data in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau[J].Plateau Meteorology,2015,34(3):653-665.(in Chinese)
[25]于莉丽,钟珊珊,魏雪,等.锡林郭勒盟大雪、暴雪天气气候特征及分型[J].内蒙古气象,2014,(2):3-7.Yu L L,Zhong S S,Wei X,et al.Climatic characteristics and classification of heavy snow and blizzard weather in Xilingol League[J].Inner Mongolia Meteorology,2014,(2):3-7.(in Chinese)