基于改进层次分析法的四川省生态承载力评价
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摘要
构建四川省生态承载力综合评价指标体系,利用改进层次分析法对评价指标进行赋权,对四川省2005—2016年生态承载力指数进行计算并分析其变化趋势,从生态弹性力、承载媒体的支撑力和承载对象的压力三个方面探讨了四川省生态承载力变化的原因。结果表明:在研究时段内,四川省生态承载力指数逐渐增加,生态系统的承载能力不断提高;生态弹性力指数呈上升趋势,但稳定性较差;承载媒体的支撑力在2010年以后有加速上升的趋势;承载对象的压力指数有增大趋势,表明压力有所缓解。通过对指标层的分析得出,水资源调控不足、环境污染是制约四川省生态承载力提高及稳定的重要因素。该研究结果可为四川省生态文明建设及经济的可持续发展提供参考。
The comprehensive evaluation index system of ecological carrying capacity in Sichuan Province was constructed in this paper. After determining the weight of each index by the method of improved analytic hierarchy process,the ecological carrying capacity index of Sichuan Province was calculated from 2005 to 2016,and the trend was analyzed. The causes which resulted in the change trend of the ecological carrying capacity was discussed from the perspective of ecosystem resilience,the support force of carrying media and the pressure of bearing objects. The results showed that the ecological carrying capacity index of Sichuan Province increased gradually during the study period,indicating that the carrying capacity of the ecosystem continued increasing. The ecosystem resilience index had waved strongly in the process in spite of a large rising trend,which may suggest that the stability of the ecological system had obvious frail characteristics. The support index of the carrying media increased gradually,indicating that the carrying capacity of the ecosystem was higher than that of before,and there was an accelerated upward trend after 2010. The pressure index of the bearing objects showed an overall upward trend,revealing that the pressure decreased gradually. Lacking water resources regulation and environmental pollution were still important factors that restricted the improvement and stability of ecological carrying capacity in Sichuan Province. The results of this study were expected to provide a reference for the sustainable economic development and ecological civilization construction in Sichuan Province.
The comprehensive evaluation index system of ecological carrying capacity in Sichuan Province was constructed in this paper. After determining the weight of each index by the method of improved analytic hierarchy process,the ecological carrying capacity index of Sichuan Province was calculated from 2005 to 2016,and the trend was analyzed. The causes which resulted in the change trend of the ecological carrying capacity was discussed from the perspective of ecosystem resilience,the support force of carrying media and the pressure of bearing objects. The results showed that the ecological carrying capacity index of Sichuan Province increased gradually during the study period,indicating that the carrying capacity of the ecosystem continued increasing. The ecosystem resilience index had waved strongly in the process in spite of a large rising trend,which may suggest that the stability of the ecological system had obvious frail characteristics. The support index of the carrying media increased gradually,indicating that the carrying capacity of the ecosystem was higher than that of before,and there was an accelerated upward trend after 2010. The pressure index of the bearing objects showed an overall upward trend,revealing that the pressure decreased gradually. Lacking water resources regulation and environmental pollution were still important factors that restricted the improvement and stability of ecological carrying capacity in Sichuan Province. The results of this study were expected to provide a reference for the sustainable economic development and ecological civilization construction in Sichuan Province.
引文
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[29]陈敏,王如松,张丽君,等.中国2002年省域生态足迹分析[J].应用生态学报,2006,(3)∶3424-3428.
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[31]刘东,封志明,杨艳昭.基于生态足迹的中国生态承载力供需平衡分析[J].自然资源学报,2012,27(4)∶614-624.
[32]张莹.区域生态红线划分方法研究[D].绵阳:西南科技大学硕士学位论文,2017.
[33]苏子友.川西南山地区生态足迹和生态承载力动态变化分析[J].四川林业科技,2016,37(4)∶39-42.
[34]王翠华,冉瑞平,魏晋.区域土地综合承载力空间差异评价研究——以四川省为例[J].国土与自然资源研究,2010,(2)∶30-31.
[35]王文国,何明雄,潘科,等.四川省水资源生态足迹与生态承载力的时空分析[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(9)∶1555-1565.
[36]雷刚旭.西部大开发中的四川水资源问题[J].农村经济,2002,(3)∶15-17.
[2]Costanza R,Arge R,Rudolf de G,et al. The Value of the World's Ecosystem Services and Natural Capital[J]. Ecological Economics,1998,25(1):3-15.
[3]Wackernagel M,Galli A. An Overview on Ecological Footprint and Sustainable Development:A Chat with Mathis Wackernage[J]. International Journal of Ecodynamics,2007,2(1)∶1-9.
[4]高吉喜.区域生态学基本理论探索[J].中国环境科学,2013,33(7)∶1252-1262.
[5]狄乾斌,张洁,吴佳璐.基于生态系统健康的辽宁省海洋生态承载力评价[J].自然资源学报,2014,29(2)∶256-264.
[6]金悦,陆兆华,檀菲菲,等.典型资源型城市生态承载力评价——以唐山市为例[J].生态学报,2015,35(14)∶4852-4859.
[7]王丽萍.生态足迹视角下河南省生态承载力研究[J].资源开发与市场,2017,33(12)∶1456-1460.
[8]陈宏观,杨晓君,杨浩波,等.基于层次分析法的东台市生态承载力研究[J].湖北农业科学,2010,49(3)∶759-761.
[9]曹永辉.生态承载力视角下可持续发展的政策响应研究[J].资源开发与市场,2013,29(8)∶832-835,873.
[10]王书华,毛汉英,王忠静.生态足迹研究的国内外近期进展[J].自然资源学报,2002,17(6)∶776-781.
[11]Haberl H,Fischer-Kowalskia M,Krausmanna F. Progress Towards Sustainability? What the Conceptual Framework of Material and Energy Flow Accounting(MEFA)Can Offer[J]. Land Use Policy,2004,21(3)∶199-213.
[12]刘保强,熊理然,蒋梅英,等.滇池流域生态承载力及系统耦合效应剖析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2015,24(5)∶868-875.
[13]熊建新,彭保发,陈端吕,等.洞庭湖区生态承载力时空演化特征[J].地理研究,2013,32(11)∶2031-2040.
[14]程超,童绍玉,彭海英,等.滇中城市群水资源生态承载力的平衡性研究[J].资源科学,2016,38(08)∶1561-1571.
[15]王维,张涛,王晓伟,等.长江经济带城市生态承载力时空格局研究[J].长江流域资源与环境,2017,26(12)∶1963-1971.
[16]姜大川,肖伟华,范晨媛,等.武汉城市圈水资源及水环境承载力分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2016,25(5)∶761-768.
[17]姜秋香,付强,王子龙.基于粒子群优化投影寻踪模型的区域土地资源承载力综合评价[J].农业工程学报,2011,27(11)∶319-324.
[18]宋岭,张磊.新疆矿产资源开发利用的综合承载力研究[J].新疆大学学报(哲学人文社会科学版),2009,37(4)∶11-17.
[19]兰继斌,徐扬,霍良安,等.模糊层次分析法权重研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2006,(9)∶107-112.
[20]朱克毓,杨善林.关于Saaty对模糊逻辑不适用于AHP观点的评述[J].系统工程理论与实践,2016,34(1)∶197-205.
[21]李永,胡向红,乔箭.改进的模糊层次分析法[J].西北大学学报(自然科学版),2005,(1)∶11-12,16.
[22]张明军,贺晋云,汪宝龙,等. 1960—2009年西南地区极端干旱气候变化[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences,2013,23(1)∶3-16.
[23]白开旭,刘朝顺,施润和,等. 2010年中国西南旱情的时空特征分析——基于MODIS数据归一化干旱指数[J].地球信息科学学报,2012,14(1)∶32-40,48.
[24]毛绩.宜宾市翠屏区水资源供需平衡分析[D].成都:四川农业大学硕士学位论文,2012.
[25]李林育.四川盆地丘陵区降雨侵蚀与输沙特征[D].杨凌:中国科学院研究生院(教育部水土保持与生态环境研究中心)硕士学位论文,2009.
[26]张展,陆晓丽.区域固定资产投资率理性回归分析[J].前沿,2011,(20)∶7-9.
[27]徐中民,陈东景,张志强,等.中国1999年的生态足迹分析[J].土壤学报,2002,(3)∶441-445.
[28]张志强,徐中民,程国栋,等.中国西部12省(区市)的生态足迹[J].地理学报,2001,(5)∶598-609.
[29]陈敏,王如松,张丽君,等.中国2002年省域生态足迹分析[J].应用生态学报,2006,(3)∶3424-3428.
[30]广佳.基于生态文明理念的区域经济可持续发展研究——以四川省为例[J].西南民族大学学报(人文社科版),2016,(4)∶127-131.
[31]刘东,封志明,杨艳昭.基于生态足迹的中国生态承载力供需平衡分析[J].自然资源学报,2012,27(4)∶614-624.
[32]张莹.区域生态红线划分方法研究[D].绵阳:西南科技大学硕士学位论文,2017.
[33]苏子友.川西南山地区生态足迹和生态承载力动态变化分析[J].四川林业科技,2016,37(4)∶39-42.
[34]王翠华,冉瑞平,魏晋.区域土地综合承载力空间差异评价研究——以四川省为例[J].国土与自然资源研究,2010,(2)∶30-31.
[35]王文国,何明雄,潘科,等.四川省水资源生态足迹与生态承载力的时空分析[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(9)∶1555-1565.
[36]雷刚旭.西部大开发中的四川水资源问题[J].农村经济,2002,(3)∶15-17.