太湖流域城乡建设用地扩张热区与洪涝危险性评价
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摘要
城乡建设用地变化及其与环境系统关联机制是流域土地可持续利用的重点方向。采用多期数据及空间分析技术,揭示太湖流域城市化进程最为迅速时期的城乡用地扩张特征及其洪涝危险性。结果表明:1985—2010年城乡用地扩张增量高达5 406. 02 km~2,扩张增率2000年后急剧上升,以大城市为核心集聚型扩张,上海及沿沪宁线扩张热区持续增加,而沪杭线及沿江扩张热区动态变化;城乡用地扩张从洪涝危险低级区向高级区转移,呈现趋势不明型、低增高减-低减高增型以及低减高增型3种类型,而高危险区新增用地有66. 2%来自新区开发;城乡建设用地需求与低洪涝危险区有限供给的矛盾是主因,城镇发展与土地利用政策演变是主推力。高危险区城乡扩张给其自身及其下游都带来更高的洪涝威胁和防洪投资,建议重点研究新区用地优化与海绵设施建设。
The paper aims to assess urban-rural land expansion and its flood hazard by use of the multi-source and multi-period data. The result shows that the incremental area of urban-rural land reached 5 406. 02 km~2,and the growth rate increased rapidly after 2000. Shanghai and South Jiangsu had a growth rate higher than that of North Zhejiang. The expansion presented an agglomerated pattern and developed around big cities as the growth cores.Shanghai City and the transportation corridors of Shanghai-Nanjing is always in the expansion hotpots of urban-rural land. The expansion hotpots varied dynamically along the transportation corridors of Shanghai-Hangzhou and Yangtze River. The urban-rural land tended to grow from the lower to higher flood hazard areas in Taihu Lake basin. Urban-rural land expansion in the flood areas are classified into three types: irregular expansion,low increase-high decrease to low decrease-high increase expansion,low decrease-high increase expansion. The main reason lies in the acute contradiction between the huge land demand for construction land and the limited supply of suitable land. There are 66. 2 percent of incremental urban-rural land from new urban districts,which is closely related with the policies of urbanization development and land use. Urban-rural land in high flood hazard areas not only leads to itself but its downstream areas with higher flood threats and protection investment. It is urgent to improve the management of new urban districts. The study is a component of urban-rural sustainable system in urban agglomeration area,and also provides a reference for urban planning and management.
The paper aims to assess urban-rural land expansion and its flood hazard by use of the multi-source and multi-period data. The result shows that the incremental area of urban-rural land reached 5 406. 02 km~2,and the growth rate increased rapidly after 2000. Shanghai and South Jiangsu had a growth rate higher than that of North Zhejiang. The expansion presented an agglomerated pattern and developed around big cities as the growth cores.Shanghai City and the transportation corridors of Shanghai-Nanjing is always in the expansion hotpots of urban-rural land. The expansion hotpots varied dynamically along the transportation corridors of Shanghai-Hangzhou and Yangtze River. The urban-rural land tended to grow from the lower to higher flood hazard areas in Taihu Lake basin. Urban-rural land expansion in the flood areas are classified into three types: irregular expansion,low increase-high decrease to low decrease-high increase expansion,low decrease-high increase expansion. The main reason lies in the acute contradiction between the huge land demand for construction land and the limited supply of suitable land. There are 66. 2 percent of incremental urban-rural land from new urban districts,which is closely related with the policies of urbanization development and land use. Urban-rural land in high flood hazard areas not only leads to itself but its downstream areas with higher flood threats and protection investment. It is urgent to improve the management of new urban districts. The study is a component of urban-rural sustainable system in urban agglomeration area,and also provides a reference for urban planning and management.
引文
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[13]苏伟忠,杨桂山,陈爽.城市空间扩展对区域洪涝孕灾环境的影响[J].资源科学,2012,34(5):933-939.
[14]冯霞.新疆城镇化与生态环境耦合关系分析[J].地域研究与开发,2016,35(3):123-127.
[15] DELLEUR J W. The Evolution of Urban Hydrology:Past,Present,and Future[J]. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2003,129(8):563-573.
[16] MEJíA A I,MOGLEN G E. Spatial Patterns of Urban Development from Optimization of Flood Peaks and Imperviousness-based Measures[J]. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering,2009,14(4):416-424.
[17] ISIDORO J M,LIMA J L,LEANDRO J. Influence of Wind-driven Rain on the Rainfall-runoff Process for Urban Areas:Scale Model of High-rise Buildings[J].Urban Water Journal,2012,9(3),199-210.
[18] JHA A,BLOCH R,LAMOND J. Cities and Flooding:A Guide to Integrated Urban Flood Risk Management for the 21st Century[R]. Washington D. C.:World Bank,2012.
[19] BRABEC E A. Imperviousness and Land-use Policy:Toward An Effective Approach to Watershed Planning[J]. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering,2009,14(4):425-433.
[20] SHUSTER W D,BONTA J,THURSTON H,et al. Impacts of Impervious Surface on Watershed Hydrology:A Review[J]. Urban Water Journal,2005,2(4):263-275.
[21] COFFMANN L. Low-impact Development Design:A New Paradigm for Stormwater Management Mimicking and Restoring the Natural Hydrologic Regime:An Alternative Stormwater Management Technology[R]. Maryland:Department of Environmental Resourses,2000.
[22] MEJíA A I,MOGLEN G E. Impact of the Spatial Distribution of Imperviousness on the Hydrologic Response of An Urbanizing Basin[J]. Hydrological Processes,2010,24(23):3359-3373.
[23] VAN ROON M. Low Impact Urban Design and Development:Catchment-based Structure Planning to Optimise Ecological Outcomes[J]. Urban Water Journal,2011,8(5):293-308.
[24]张飞,孔伟.我国土地城镇化的时空特征及机理研究[J].地域研究与开发,2014,33(5):144-148.
[25]陆大道.还没摆脱城市化冒进误区[J].人民论坛,2010(13):26-26.
[26]高俊峰,毛新伟.太湖流域经济发展及其对洪涝的影响[J].湖泊科学,2002,14(1):47-52.
[27] MENTENS J,RAES D,HERMY M. Green Roofs as A Tool for Solving the Rainwater Runoff Problem in the Urbanized21st Century?[J]. Landscape and Urban Planning,2006,77(3):217-226.
[28] GUNN R,MARTIN A,ENGEL B,et al. Development of Two Indices for Determining Hydrologic Implications of Land Use Changes in Urban Areas[J]. Urban Water Journal,2012,9(4):239-248.
[29]叶高斌,苏伟忠,陈维肖.太湖流域城乡建设用地扩张的高程特征变化[J].自然资源学报,2015,30(6):938-950.
[30]杨世伦,陈吉余.太湖流域洪涝灾害的形成和演变[J].地理科学,1995,15(4):307-314.
[31]荣洁,曾春芬,王腊春.太湖流域LUCC对水文过程的影响[J].湖泊科学,2014,26(2):305-312.
[32]周峰,许有鹏,石怡.基于AHP-OWA方法的洪涝灾害风险区划研究——以秦淮河中下游地区为例[J].自然灾害学报,2012,21(6):83-90.
[33]张行南,罗健,陈雷,等.中国洪水灾害危险程度区划[J].水利学报,2000(3):1-7.
[34]万昔超,殷伟量,孙鹏,等.基于云模型的暴雨洪涝灾害风险分区评价[J].自然灾害学报,2017,26(4):77-83.
[35]马进.基于GIS洛阳地区暴雨洪涝灾害风险区划分析[J].现代农业科技,2017(23):199-201.
[36]于文金,闫永刚,吕海燕,等.基于GIS的太湖流域暴雨洪涝灾害风险定量化研究[J].灾害学,2011,26(4):1-7.
[37]莫建飞,陆甲,李艳兰,等.基于GIS的广西农业暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估[J].灾害学,2012,27(1):38-43.
[38]李建伟,刘科伟,刘林.城市空间扩张转型与新区形成时机——西安实证分析与讨论[J].城市规划,2015,39(4):58-64.
[39]李建伟.空间扩张视角的大中城市新区生长机理研究[D].西安:西北大学,2012:73-79.
[40]方创琳.中国城市化进程及资源环境保障报告[M].北京:科学出版社,2009:101-106.
[41]牛凤瑞,潘家华,刘治彦.中国城市发展30年(1978—2008)[M].北京:社会科学文献出版社,2009:37-40.
[42]陆大道.我国的城镇化进程与空间扩张[J].城市规划学刊,2007(4):47-52.
(1)括号内数字为站点编号。
[2] IPCC. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report:Climate Change 2007(AR4)[R]. Geneva:IPCC,2007.
[3] TURNER B L,LAMBIN E F,REENBERG A. The Emergence of Land Change Science for Global Environmental Change and Sustainability[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,2007,104(52):666-671.
[4]刘纪远,邵全琴,延晓冬,等.土地利用变化对全球气候影响的研究进展与方法初探[J].地球科学进展,2011,26(10):1015-1022.
[5]刘纪远,匡文慧,张增祥,等. 20世纪80年代末以来中国土地利用变化的基本特征与空间格局[J].地理学报,2014,69(1):3-14.
[6] United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division. World Urbanization Prospects:The2014 Revision[R]. New York:United Nations,2014.
[7]姚士谋,陈维肖,陈振光,等.新常态下我国新型城镇化的若干问题[J].地域研究与开发,2016,35(1):3-7.
[8] HAASE D. Effects of Urbanisation on the Water Balance:A Long-term Trajectory[J]. Environmental Impact Assessment Review,2009,29(4):211-219.
[9] WEIZHONG S,GAOBIN Y,SHIMOU Y,et al. Urban Land Pattern Impacts on Floods in A New District of China[J].Sustainability,2014,6(10):6488-6508.
[10]黄馨,黄晓军,陈才.长春城市空间扩张特征、机理与调控[J].地域研究与开发,2009,28(5):68-72.
[11]陈莹,许有鹏,陈兴伟.长江三角洲地区中小流域未来城镇化的水文效应[J].资源科学,2011,33(1):64-69.
[12] WEIZHONG S,CHAOLIN G,GUISHAN Y,et al. Measuring the Impact of Urban Sprawl on Natural Landscape Pattern of the Western Taihu Lake Watershed,China[J]. Landscape and Urban Planning,2010,95(1/2):61-67.
[13]苏伟忠,杨桂山,陈爽.城市空间扩展对区域洪涝孕灾环境的影响[J].资源科学,2012,34(5):933-939.
[14]冯霞.新疆城镇化与生态环境耦合关系分析[J].地域研究与开发,2016,35(3):123-127.
[15] DELLEUR J W. The Evolution of Urban Hydrology:Past,Present,and Future[J]. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2003,129(8):563-573.
[16] MEJíA A I,MOGLEN G E. Spatial Patterns of Urban Development from Optimization of Flood Peaks and Imperviousness-based Measures[J]. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering,2009,14(4):416-424.
[17] ISIDORO J M,LIMA J L,LEANDRO J. Influence of Wind-driven Rain on the Rainfall-runoff Process for Urban Areas:Scale Model of High-rise Buildings[J].Urban Water Journal,2012,9(3),199-210.
[18] JHA A,BLOCH R,LAMOND J. Cities and Flooding:A Guide to Integrated Urban Flood Risk Management for the 21st Century[R]. Washington D. C.:World Bank,2012.
[19] BRABEC E A. Imperviousness and Land-use Policy:Toward An Effective Approach to Watershed Planning[J]. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering,2009,14(4):425-433.
[20] SHUSTER W D,BONTA J,THURSTON H,et al. Impacts of Impervious Surface on Watershed Hydrology:A Review[J]. Urban Water Journal,2005,2(4):263-275.
[21] COFFMANN L. Low-impact Development Design:A New Paradigm for Stormwater Management Mimicking and Restoring the Natural Hydrologic Regime:An Alternative Stormwater Management Technology[R]. Maryland:Department of Environmental Resourses,2000.
[22] MEJíA A I,MOGLEN G E. Impact of the Spatial Distribution of Imperviousness on the Hydrologic Response of An Urbanizing Basin[J]. Hydrological Processes,2010,24(23):3359-3373.
[23] VAN ROON M. Low Impact Urban Design and Development:Catchment-based Structure Planning to Optimise Ecological Outcomes[J]. Urban Water Journal,2011,8(5):293-308.
[24]张飞,孔伟.我国土地城镇化的时空特征及机理研究[J].地域研究与开发,2014,33(5):144-148.
[25]陆大道.还没摆脱城市化冒进误区[J].人民论坛,2010(13):26-26.
[26]高俊峰,毛新伟.太湖流域经济发展及其对洪涝的影响[J].湖泊科学,2002,14(1):47-52.
[27] MENTENS J,RAES D,HERMY M. Green Roofs as A Tool for Solving the Rainwater Runoff Problem in the Urbanized21st Century?[J]. Landscape and Urban Planning,2006,77(3):217-226.
[28] GUNN R,MARTIN A,ENGEL B,et al. Development of Two Indices for Determining Hydrologic Implications of Land Use Changes in Urban Areas[J]. Urban Water Journal,2012,9(4):239-248.
[29]叶高斌,苏伟忠,陈维肖.太湖流域城乡建设用地扩张的高程特征变化[J].自然资源学报,2015,30(6):938-950.
[30]杨世伦,陈吉余.太湖流域洪涝灾害的形成和演变[J].地理科学,1995,15(4):307-314.
[31]荣洁,曾春芬,王腊春.太湖流域LUCC对水文过程的影响[J].湖泊科学,2014,26(2):305-312.
[32]周峰,许有鹏,石怡.基于AHP-OWA方法的洪涝灾害风险区划研究——以秦淮河中下游地区为例[J].自然灾害学报,2012,21(6):83-90.
[33]张行南,罗健,陈雷,等.中国洪水灾害危险程度区划[J].水利学报,2000(3):1-7.
[34]万昔超,殷伟量,孙鹏,等.基于云模型的暴雨洪涝灾害风险分区评价[J].自然灾害学报,2017,26(4):77-83.
[35]马进.基于GIS洛阳地区暴雨洪涝灾害风险区划分析[J].现代农业科技,2017(23):199-201.
[36]于文金,闫永刚,吕海燕,等.基于GIS的太湖流域暴雨洪涝灾害风险定量化研究[J].灾害学,2011,26(4):1-7.
[37]莫建飞,陆甲,李艳兰,等.基于GIS的广西农业暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估[J].灾害学,2012,27(1):38-43.
[38]李建伟,刘科伟,刘林.城市空间扩张转型与新区形成时机——西安实证分析与讨论[J].城市规划,2015,39(4):58-64.
[39]李建伟.空间扩张视角的大中城市新区生长机理研究[D].西安:西北大学,2012:73-79.
[40]方创琳.中国城市化进程及资源环境保障报告[M].北京:科学出版社,2009:101-106.
[41]牛凤瑞,潘家华,刘治彦.中国城市发展30年(1978—2008)[M].北京:社会科学文献出版社,2009:37-40.
[42]陆大道.我国的城镇化进程与空间扩张[J].城市规划学刊,2007(4):47-52.
(1)括号内数字为站点编号。
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