中国实施国家自主贡献的路径研究
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摘要
作为《巴黎协定》的核心机制,中国能否更好实施国家自主贡献受到国际社会和国内利益相关者的广泛关注。本文基于国家自主贡献评估模型,对既有政策、国家适当减缓行动和国家自主贡献三类情景下十五类政策和行动进行了分类研究,量化评估了低碳能源政策、节能低碳产业政策、建筑和交通减排、增加碳汇等措施对目标进展的贡献,识别了现有措施实施力度存在的差距和问题,提出了下一阶段中国更高质量实施国家自主贡献的路线图和政策建议。实证研究结果表明:中国在"十三五"时期所采取的政策措施力度,仅能保障实现到2030年单位GDP碳排放相比于2005年下降60%～65%左右的目标,但CO2排放总量仍将保持缓速上升,能否实现峰值目标仍存在不确定性,且非化石能源占一次能源消费的比重也仅能达到18%左右,并不足以完全支撑自主贡献目标的实现。针对实施国家自主贡献的要求和现有政策存在的问题,"十四五"时期应重点考虑实施路径的转变,从当前"强度主导型"的政策体系过渡到"峰值引领型"的碳排放总量管理制度体系。
As the core mechanism under the Paris Agreement, whether China can better implement its Nationally Determined Contributions has been widely concerned by the international community and domestic stakeholders.Based on the NDCAM model, this paper classifies the fifteen policies and actions under the scenarios of current policies, National Appropriate Mitigation Actions and Nationally Determined Contributions, and quantitatively evaluates the contribution of low-carbon energy policy, other industrial policy, building and transport policy and carbon sinks measures, to evaluate the progress, gaps and challenges existing in the current implementation efforts, and puts forward the technology roadmap and policy recommendations for China's higher quality implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions in the next stage. The results of empirical research show that China's policies and measures adopted during the 13 th Five-year Plan period can only guarantee the achievement of the target of reducing carbon emissions per unit of GDP by about 60%～65% by 2030 compared with 2005. However, the total amount of CO_2 emissions will continue to increase slowly, whether the peak target can be achieved is still uncertain, and the share of nonfossil fuels in primary energy consumption can only reach about 18%, which is not enough to fully support the achievement of the contribution goals. In view of the existing requirements and challenges, the transformation of implementation pathway should be taken into account in the period of the 14 th Five-year Plan, and changes should be made from the current "Intensity-oriented" policy system into a "Peak-led" carbon emission cap control regime.
As the core mechanism under the Paris Agreement, whether China can better implement its Nationally Determined Contributions has been widely concerned by the international community and domestic stakeholders.Based on the NDCAM model, this paper classifies the fifteen policies and actions under the scenarios of current policies, National Appropriate Mitigation Actions and Nationally Determined Contributions, and quantitatively evaluates the contribution of low-carbon energy policy, other industrial policy, building and transport policy and carbon sinks measures, to evaluate the progress, gaps and challenges existing in the current implementation efforts, and puts forward the technology roadmap and policy recommendations for China's higher quality implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions in the next stage. The results of empirical research show that China's policies and measures adopted during the 13 th Five-year Plan period can only guarantee the achievement of the target of reducing carbon emissions per unit of GDP by about 60%～65% by 2030 compared with 2005. However, the total amount of CO_2 emissions will continue to increase slowly, whether the peak target can be achieved is still uncertain, and the share of nonfossil fuels in primary energy consumption can only reach about 18%, which is not enough to fully support the achievement of the contribution goals. In view of the existing requirements and challenges, the transformation of implementation pathway should be taken into account in the period of the 14 th Five-year Plan, and changes should be made from the current "Intensity-oriented" policy system into a "Peak-led" carbon emission cap control regime.
引文
[1]柴麒敏,何建坤.气候公平的认知、政治和综合评估--如何全面看待“共区”原则在德班平台的适用问题[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2013,23(06):1-7.
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[7]崔学勤,王克,邹骥.美欧中印“国家自主贡献”目标的力度和公平性评估[J].中国环境科学,2016,36(12):3831-3840.
[8]段宏波,杨建龙.政策协同对中国国家自主贡献目标的影响评估[J].环境经济研究,2018,3(02):11-26+65.
[9]冯相昭,刘哲,田春秀,王敏.从国家自主贡献承诺看全球气候治理体系的变化[J].世界环境,2015,6:35-39.
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[11]洪祎君,崔惠娟,王芳,葛全胜.基于发展中国家自主贡献文件的资金需求评估[J].气候变化研究进展,2018,14(06):621-631.
[12]梁晓菲.新发展理念与气候变化--以国家自主贡献为视角[J].重庆理工大学学报(社会科学版),2019,33(02):7-16.
[13]潘寻.基于国家自主决定贡献的发展中国家应对气候变化资金需求研究[J].气候变化研究进展,2016,12(05):450-456.
[14]王利宁,杨雷,陈文颖,单葆国,张成龙,尹硕.国家自主决定贡献的减排力度评价[J].气候变化研究进展,2018,14(06):613-620.
[15]曾文革,党庶枫.《巴黎协定》国家自主贡献下的新市场机制探析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(09):112-119.
[16]周焕濠.试析《巴黎协定》中的国家自主贡献模式及中国的承诺[J].现代农业研究,2019,1:119-121.
[17]Chai,Q.,S.Fu,H.Xu,W.Li,and Y.Zhong.The Gap Report of Global Climate Change Mitigation,Finance,and Governance after the United States Declared Its Withdrawal from the Paris Agreement[J].Chinese Journal of Population,Resources and Environment,2017,15(03):196-208.
[18]Fang,K.,Q.Zhang,Y.Long,Y.Yoshida,L.Sun,H.Zhang,Y.Dou,and S.Li.How Can China Achieve Its Intended Nationally Determined Contributions by 2030?A Multi-criteria Allocation of China's Carbon Emission Allowance[J].Applied Energy,2019,241:380-389.
[19]Fragkos,P.and N.Kouvaritakis.Model-based Analysis of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions and 2℃Pathways for Major Economies[J].Energy,2018,160:965-978.
[20]Pietzcker,R.,T.Longden,W.Chen,S.Fu,and G.Luderer.Long-term Transport Energy Demand and Climate Policy:Alternative Visions on Transport Decarbonization in Energy-economy Models[J].Energy,2014,64:95-108.
[21]Jiang,K.,C.He,C.Qu,C.Dai,and P.Xiang.Are China's Nationally Determined Contributions(NDCs)So Bad[J].Science Bulletin,2019,64(6):364-366.
[22]Xing,R.,T.Hanaoka,Y.Kanamori,and T.Masui.A Study on Mitigation Potential in Service Building Sector:Efficient Technology Implications of China's Intended Nationally Determined Contribution[J].Energy Procedia,2017,134:432-441.
[23]Xing,R.,T.Hanaoka,Y.Kanamori,and T.Masui.Achieving China's Intended Nationally Determined Contribution and Its Co-benefits:Effects of the Residential Sector[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2018,172:2964-2977.
[24]Yang,X.,F.Teng,X.Xi,E.Khayrullin,and Q.Zhang.Cost-benefit Analysis of China's Intended Nationally123Determined Contributions Based on Carbon Marginal Cost Curves[J].Applied Energy,2018,227:415-425.
[2]柴麒敏,徐华清.基于IAMC模型的中国碳排放峰值目标实现路径研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,25(06):37-46.
[3]柴麒敏,傅莎,郑晓奇,赵旭晨,徐华清.中国重点部门和行业碳排放总量控制目标及政策研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(12):1-7.
[4]柴麒敏,傅莎,祁悦,樊星,温新元.应对气候变化国家自主贡献的实施、更新与衔接[J].中国发展观察,2018,10:25-29.
[5]柴麒敏,傅莎,温新元,刘冠英,徐华清.中国实施2030年应对气候变化国家自主贡献的资金需求研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2019,29(4):1-9.
[6]陈艺丹,蔡闻佳,王灿.国家自主决定贡献的特征研究[J].气候变化研究进展,2018,14(03):295-302.
[7]崔学勤,王克,邹骥.美欧中印“国家自主贡献”目标的力度和公平性评估[J].中国环境科学,2016,36(12):3831-3840.
[8]段宏波,杨建龙.政策协同对中国国家自主贡献目标的影响评估[J].环境经济研究,2018,3(02):11-26+65.
[9]冯相昭,刘哲,田春秀,王敏.从国家自主贡献承诺看全球气候治理体系的变化[J].世界环境,2015,6:35-39.
[10]龚微,贺惟君.基于国家自主贡献的中国与东盟国家气候合作[J].东南亚纵横,2018,(05):65-72.
[11]洪祎君,崔惠娟,王芳,葛全胜.基于发展中国家自主贡献文件的资金需求评估[J].气候变化研究进展,2018,14(06):621-631.
[12]梁晓菲.新发展理念与气候变化--以国家自主贡献为视角[J].重庆理工大学学报(社会科学版),2019,33(02):7-16.
[13]潘寻.基于国家自主决定贡献的发展中国家应对气候变化资金需求研究[J].气候变化研究进展,2016,12(05):450-456.
[14]王利宁,杨雷,陈文颖,单葆国,张成龙,尹硕.国家自主决定贡献的减排力度评价[J].气候变化研究进展,2018,14(06):613-620.
[15]曾文革,党庶枫.《巴黎协定》国家自主贡献下的新市场机制探析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(09):112-119.
[16]周焕濠.试析《巴黎协定》中的国家自主贡献模式及中国的承诺[J].现代农业研究,2019,1:119-121.
[17]Chai,Q.,S.Fu,H.Xu,W.Li,and Y.Zhong.The Gap Report of Global Climate Change Mitigation,Finance,and Governance after the United States Declared Its Withdrawal from the Paris Agreement[J].Chinese Journal of Population,Resources and Environment,2017,15(03):196-208.
[18]Fang,K.,Q.Zhang,Y.Long,Y.Yoshida,L.Sun,H.Zhang,Y.Dou,and S.Li.How Can China Achieve Its Intended Nationally Determined Contributions by 2030?A Multi-criteria Allocation of China's Carbon Emission Allowance[J].Applied Energy,2019,241:380-389.
[19]Fragkos,P.and N.Kouvaritakis.Model-based Analysis of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions and 2℃Pathways for Major Economies[J].Energy,2018,160:965-978.
[20]Pietzcker,R.,T.Longden,W.Chen,S.Fu,and G.Luderer.Long-term Transport Energy Demand and Climate Policy:Alternative Visions on Transport Decarbonization in Energy-economy Models[J].Energy,2014,64:95-108.
[21]Jiang,K.,C.He,C.Qu,C.Dai,and P.Xiang.Are China's Nationally Determined Contributions(NDCs)So Bad[J].Science Bulletin,2019,64(6):364-366.
[22]Xing,R.,T.Hanaoka,Y.Kanamori,and T.Masui.A Study on Mitigation Potential in Service Building Sector:Efficient Technology Implications of China's Intended Nationally Determined Contribution[J].Energy Procedia,2017,134:432-441.
[23]Xing,R.,T.Hanaoka,Y.Kanamori,and T.Masui.Achieving China's Intended Nationally Determined Contribution and Its Co-benefits:Effects of the Residential Sector[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2018,172:2964-2977.
[24]Yang,X.,F.Teng,X.Xi,E.Khayrullin,and Q.Zhang.Cost-benefit Analysis of China's Intended Nationally123Determined Contributions Based on Carbon Marginal Cost Curves[J].Applied Energy,2018,227:415-425.
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