全球大豆贸易网络演化特征与政策启示
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摘要
大豆是我国进口贸易依存度较高的农产品之一,作为大豆的下游加工品,豆油和豆粕的贸易状况对大豆供求结构也存在显著影响,分析全球大豆及其加工品的贸易网络演化特征,对于贸易摩擦背景下的大豆稳定供应具有重要意义。本文选择2002年和2017年全球大豆、豆油、豆粕进口量前五十位国家的贸易数据,分别构建无权贸易网络和加权贸易网络,对总体网络特征、国别关系特征和国别地位特征进行分析。结果显示:全球大豆、豆油、豆粕贸易规模逐渐扩大,贸易密集性和聚集程度不断增强,出口较进口更为集中,核心国在网络中占有重要地位并一定程度掌控贸易流向。随着大豆国际贸易发展,网络结构趋于均衡,更多国家参与到大豆贸易中来。在中美贸易摩擦与高进口依存度背景下,我国应立足大豆的基本供求特征,通过积极开发大豆贸易市场、寻求豆油和豆粕的替代品、推进我国大豆期货市场国际化等手段,扭转进口集聚导致的被动地位,构建我国为主导地位的大豆供应体系。
Soybean is one of the agricultural products with high dependence on imports in China. As downstream processed products of soybean, the trade status of soybean oil and soybean meal also has a significant impact on the supply and demand structure of soybean. To analyze the evolutionary characteristics of the global trade network of soybean and processed products is of great significance for the stable supply of soybean under the background of trade friction. Based on the trade data of soybean, soybean oil and soybean meal from the top 50 countries in 2002 and 2017, this paper built a non-weighted trade network and a weighted trade network to analyze the characteristics of the global soybean trade network, country relationship and country status. Results show that the global trade scales of soybean, soybean oil and soybean meal are gradually expanding, the trade density and the degree of trade aggregation are increasing, and exports are more concentrated than imports. The core countries occupy an important position in the network and control the trade flow to a certain extent. With the development of international soybean trade, the network structure tends to be balanced, and more countries are involved in soybean trade. Under the background of China-US trade friction and high import dependence, China should actively expand the soybean trade market, seek alternatives to soybean oil and soybean meal and promote the internationalization of China's soybean futures market to reverse the passive status caused by import agglomeration and to construct China's leading soybean supply system.
Soybean is one of the agricultural products with high dependence on imports in China. As downstream processed products of soybean, the trade status of soybean oil and soybean meal also has a significant impact on the supply and demand structure of soybean. To analyze the evolutionary characteristics of the global trade network of soybean and processed products is of great significance for the stable supply of soybean under the background of trade friction. Based on the trade data of soybean, soybean oil and soybean meal from the top 50 countries in 2002 and 2017, this paper built a non-weighted trade network and a weighted trade network to analyze the characteristics of the global soybean trade network, country relationship and country status. Results show that the global trade scales of soybean, soybean oil and soybean meal are gradually expanding, the trade density and the degree of trade aggregation are increasing, and exports are more concentrated than imports. The core countries occupy an important position in the network and control the trade flow to a certain extent. With the development of international soybean trade, the network structure tends to be balanced, and more countries are involved in soybean trade. Under the background of China-US trade friction and high import dependence, China should actively expand the soybean trade market, seek alternatives to soybean oil and soybean meal and promote the internationalization of China's soybean futures market to reverse the passive status caused by import agglomeration and to construct China's leading soybean supply system.
引文
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[10]刘芬.国际大豆贸易网络结构研究[D].北京:北京理工大学,2016.Liu F.Research on the structure of international soybean trade network[D].Beijing:Beijing Institute of Technology,2016.
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[14]孙致陆.世界大豆产品贸易变动及其效应分解[J].华南农业大学学报(社会科学版),2019,18(2):1-13.S u n Z L.C h a n g e s o f w o r l d s o y b e a n t r a d e a n d e ff e c t s decomposition[J].Journal of South China Agricultural University(Social Science Edition),2019,18(2):1-13.
[15]滕飞,王利民,刘佳.中美贸易摩擦背景下中国大豆进口潜力分析[J].中国农业信息,2018,30(5):102-109.Teng F,Wang L M,Liu J.Analysis on the potential of soybean imports of China under the background of Sino-US trade friction[J].China Agricultural Informatics,2018,30(5):102-109.
[2]李顺萍.世界大豆生产布局及中国大豆对外依存度分析[J].世界农业,2018,40(11):108-112.Li S P.Analysis of the world soybean production layout and China’s soybean dependence on foreign countries[J].World Agriculture,2018,40(11):108-112.
[3]陈伟,朱俊峰,田国强.中美贸易摩擦对中国大豆的影响及对策分析[J].大豆科学,2019,38(1):118-123.Chen W,Zhu J F,Tian G Q.The impact and countermeasures analysis of Sino-US trade friction on China’s soybean[J].Soybean Science,2019,38(1):118-123.
[4]Newman M E J.The structure and function of complex networks[J].SIAM Review,2003,45(2):167-256.
[5]马述忠,任婉婉,吴国杰.一国农产品贸易网络特征及其对全球价值链分工的影响——基于社会网络分析视角[J].管理世界,2016,32(3):60-72.Ma S Z,Ren W W,Wu G J.The characteristics of agricultural trade network and its effects on the global value chain division:A study based on social network analysis[J].Management World,2016,32(3):60-72.
[6]陈银飞.2000-2009年世界贸易格局的社会网络分析[J].国际贸易问题,2011,36(11):31-42.Chen Y F.Analysis on social network of world trade situation in 2000-2009[J].Journal of International Trade,2011,36(11):31-42.
[7]邹嘉龄,刘卫东.2001-2013年中国与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易网络分析[J].地理科学,2016,36(11):1629-1636.Zou J L,Liu W D.Trade network of China and countries along“Belt and Road Initiative”areas from 2001 to 2013[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2016,36(11):1629-1636.
[8]杨文龙,杜德斌,马亚华,等.“一带一路”沿线国家贸易网络空间结构与邻近性[J].地理研究,2018,37(11):2218-2235.Yang W L,Du D B,Ma Y H,et al.Network structure and proximity of the trade network in the Belt and Road region[J].Geographical Research,2018,37(11):2218-2235.
[9]王祥,强文丽,牛叔文,等.全球农产品贸易网络及其演化分析[J].自然资源学报,2018,33(6):940-953.Wang X,Qiang W L,Niu S W,et al.Analysis on global agricultural trade network and its evolution[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2018,33(6):940-953.
[10]刘芬.国际大豆贸易网络结构研究[D].北京:北京理工大学,2016.Liu F.Research on the structure of international soybean trade network[D].Beijing:Beijing Institute of Technology,2016.
[11]Serrano M A,Boguna M.Topology of the world trade web[J].Physical Review E,2003,68(1):634-646.
[12]Garlaschelli D,Loffredo M I.Structure and evolution of the world trade network[J].Physica A:Statistical Mechanics and its Applications,2005,355(1):138-144.
[13]Burt R S.Structural holes:the social structure of competition[M].Cambridge:Harvard University Press,1992.
[14]孙致陆.世界大豆产品贸易变动及其效应分解[J].华南农业大学学报(社会科学版),2019,18(2):1-13.S u n Z L.C h a n g e s o f w o r l d s o y b e a n t r a d e a n d e ff e c t s decomposition[J].Journal of South China Agricultural University(Social Science Edition),2019,18(2):1-13.
[15]滕飞,王利民,刘佳.中美贸易摩擦背景下中国大豆进口潜力分析[J].中国农业信息,2018,30(5):102-109.Teng F,Wang L M,Liu J.Analysis on the potential of soybean imports of China under the background of Sino-US trade friction[J].China Agricultural Informatics,2018,30(5):102-109.