2000年以来淮河流域夏季降水年代际特征及大气环流异常
|
摘要
利用1961—2016年中国642站降水资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,分析了2000—2016年淮河流域夏季降水年代际变化特征及相应的大气环流异常,并探讨了2000年前后预测信号的转变。研究表明2000—2016年淮河流域夏季降水具有明显的年代际变化,2000—2008年为降水偏多期,2009—2016年为降水偏少期,且两个时期降水差异显著。降水偏多和偏少期对应的大气环流有明显差异,淮河流域多(少)雨期,贝加尔湖高压脊(低压槽)明显,乌拉尔山和鄂霍次克海为低压槽(高压脊),南亚高压偏弱(强)偏西(东),东亚副热带高空西风急流偏弱(偏强),热带东风急流偏强(减弱),同时与南半球的索马里越赤道急流、马斯克林高压和澳大利亚高压偏强(弱)有密切关系。前冬北太平洋涛动(NPO)可以作为淮河流域夏季降水的一个前兆信号,但2000年前后前冬NPO与淮河流域夏季降水的关系发生了年代际转折,2000年之前两者为明显的负相关,之后转为正相关。2000年之前冬季强(弱) NPO年与2000年之后冬季弱(强) NPO年对应夏季乌拉尔山和鄂霍次克海为明显的高压脊(低压槽),贝加尔湖为低压槽(高压脊),西太平洋副热带高压位于我国南海到菲律宾北部(台湾附近海域),有利于淮河流域夏季降水偏少(多)。
Based on precipitation data of 642 stations in China and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data during 1961-2016,the interdecadal variation characteristics of summer precipitation over the Huaihe River Basin and corresponding atmospheric circulation anomalies since2000 were analyzed,and the change of possible predictive signals around the year 2000 was discussed. The results show that summer precipitation over the Huaihe River Basin had obvious interdecadal change,which was from the period of more precipitation during2000-2008 to the period of less precipitation during 2009-2016,and the precipitation differences were significant between two periods. The atmospheric circulations during the two different precipitation periods were obviously different. During the period of more (less) precipitation,the high ridge (low trough) over the Lake Baykal was obvious,the low trough (high ridge) over the Ural mountains and the Sea of Okhotsk was obvious. And the South Asia high became weaker (stronger) and shifted westward (eastward-shifted),the East Asian Subtropical Westerly Jet Stream was weaker (stronger),the tropical easterlies jet was stronger (weaker).Meanwhile,during the periods of more (less) precipitation,there was strong (weak) Somali cross-equatorial flow,Mascarene high and Australian high of southern hemisphere. The pre-winter North Pacific Oscillations (NPO) could still be a precursory signal of summer precipitation over the Huaihe River Basin. However,the interdecadal variation of relationship between the NPO and summer precipitation over the Huaihe River Basin had arisen around the year 2000. There was a significant negative correlation before 2000 and positive correlation after 2000. For both strong (weak) pre-winter NPO years before 2000 and weak (strong) pre-winter NPO years after 2000,the summer high ridge (low trough) over the Ural mountains and the Sea of Okhotsk was obvious,the summer low trough (high ridge) over the Lake Baykal was obvious and the summertime western Pacific Subtropical High was located from South China sea to north Philippine (sea area near Taiwan),which influenced summer precipitation less (more) over the Huaihe River Basin.
Based on precipitation data of 642 stations in China and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data during 1961-2016,the interdecadal variation characteristics of summer precipitation over the Huaihe River Basin and corresponding atmospheric circulation anomalies since2000 were analyzed,and the change of possible predictive signals around the year 2000 was discussed. The results show that summer precipitation over the Huaihe River Basin had obvious interdecadal change,which was from the period of more precipitation during2000-2008 to the period of less precipitation during 2009-2016,and the precipitation differences were significant between two periods. The atmospheric circulations during the two different precipitation periods were obviously different. During the period of more (less) precipitation,the high ridge (low trough) over the Lake Baykal was obvious,the low trough (high ridge) over the Ural mountains and the Sea of Okhotsk was obvious. And the South Asia high became weaker (stronger) and shifted westward (eastward-shifted),the East Asian Subtropical Westerly Jet Stream was weaker (stronger),the tropical easterlies jet was stronger (weaker).Meanwhile,during the periods of more (less) precipitation,there was strong (weak) Somali cross-equatorial flow,Mascarene high and Australian high of southern hemisphere. The pre-winter North Pacific Oscillations (NPO) could still be a precursory signal of summer precipitation over the Huaihe River Basin. However,the interdecadal variation of relationship between the NPO and summer precipitation over the Huaihe River Basin had arisen around the year 2000. There was a significant negative correlation before 2000 and positive correlation after 2000. For both strong (weak) pre-winter NPO years before 2000 and weak (strong) pre-winter NPO years after 2000,the summer high ridge (low trough) over the Ural mountains and the Sea of Okhotsk was obvious,the summer low trough (high ridge) over the Lake Baykal was obvious and the summertime western Pacific Subtropical High was located from South China sea to north Philippine (sea area near Taiwan),which influenced summer precipitation less (more) over the Huaihe River Basin.
引文
[1]高辉.淮河夏季降水与赤道东太平洋海温对应关系的年代际变化[J].应用气象学报,2006,17(1):1-9.
[2]黄荣辉,孙凤英.热带西太平洋暖池的热状态及其上空的对流活动对东亚夏季气候异常的影响[J].大气科学,1994,18(2):141-151.
[3]DING Y H,SUN Y. A study on anomalous activities of East Asian summer monsoon during 1999[J]. J Meteor Soc Japan,2001,79(6):1119-1137.
[4]黄荣辉,蔡榕硕,陈际龙,等.我国旱涝气候灾害的年代际变化及其与东亚气候系统变化的关系[J].大气科学,2006,30(5):730-743.
[5]张庆云,郭恒.夏季长江淮河流域异常降水事件环流差异及机理研究[J].大气科学,2014,38(4):656-669.
[6]毕宝贵,矫梅燕,李泽椿. 2003年淮河流域洪涝暴雨的气象水文特征分析[J].南京气象学院学报,2004,27(5):577-586.
[7]张娇,郭品文,王东勇,等.淮河流域持续性强降水过程的环流变化特征[J].大气科学学报,2012,35(3):322-328.
[8]杨秀梅,马敏劲,朱安豹. 2013年7月一次江淮暴雨成因分析[J].干旱气象,2016,34(4):700-709.
[9]龚振淞,王永光,许力. 2003年夏季中高纬度环流与淮河流域降水[J].气象,2004,30(2):30-33.
[10]桂海林,周兵,金荣花. 2007年淮河流域暴雨期间大气环流特征分析[J].气象,2010,36(8):8-18.
[11]马音,陈文,王林.中国夏季淮河和江南梅雨期降水异常年际变化的气候背景及其比较[J].气象学报,2011,69(2):334-343.
[12]江志红,梁卓然,刘征宇,等. 2007年淮河流域强降水过程的水汽输送特征分析[J].大气科学,2011,35(2):361-372.
[13]程智,高辉,曹勇.索马里越赤道气流与淮河流域夏季降水关系的年代际增强[J].大气科学,2018,42(6):1363-1377.
[14]信忠保,谢志仁. ENSO事件对淮河流域降水的影响[J].海洋预报,2005,22(2):38-46.
[15]陶亦凡,孙照渤,李维京,等. ENSO与青藏高原积雪的关系及其对我国夏季降水异常的影响[J].气象,2011,37(8):919-928.
[16]高辉,王永光. ENSO对中国夏季降水可预测性变化的研究[J].气象学报,2007,65(1):131-137.
[17]宗海锋,陈烈庭,张庆云. ENSO与中国夏季降水年际变化关系的不稳定特征[J].大气科学,2010,34(1):184-192.
[18]罗连升,徐敏,梁树献.厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜与淮河流域汛期降水年际关系的稳定性分析[J].气象,2018,44(8):1073-1081.
[19]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京,气象出版社,2007. 57-66.
[20]林学椿.统计天气预报中相关系数的不稳定性问题[J].大气科学,1978,2:55-63.
[21]赵俊虎,杨柳,曾宇星,等.夏季长江中下游和华南两类雨型的环流特征及预测信号[J].大气科学,2016,40(6):1182-1198.
[22]KOTESWARAM P. The easterly jet stream in the tropics[J]. Tellus,1958,10:43-57.
[23]陈桦,丁一汇,何金海.夏季热带东风急流的结构、变化及其与亚非季风降水的关系[J].大气科学,2007,31(5):926-936.
[24]陈际龙,黄荣辉.亚洲夏季风水汽输送的年际年代际变化与中国旱涝的关系[J].地球物理学报,2008,51(2):352-359.
[25]王会军,薛峰.索马里急流的年际变化及其对半球间水汽输送和东亚夏季降水的影响[J].地球物理学报,2003,46(1):18-25.
[26]薛峰,王会军,何金海.马斯克林高压和澳大利亚高压的年际变化及其对东亚夏季风降水的影响[J].科学通报,2003,48(3):287-291.
[27]张静,朱伟军,李忠贤.北太平洋涛动与淮河流域夏季降水异常的关系[J].南京气象学院学报,2007,30(4):546-550.
[28]周波涛,夏冬冬.淮河流域夏季降水与前冬北太平洋涛动联系的年代际变化[J].中国科学:地球科学,2013,43(4):547-555.
[29]赵俊虎,封国林.全球变暖背景下中国东部夏季三类雨型预测概念模型新建[J].中国科学:地球科学,2015,45(4):414-426.
[30]李维京,李怡,陈丽娟,等.我国冬季气温与影响因子关系的年代际变化[J].应用气象学报,2013,24(4):385-396.
[31]李维京,张若楠,孙丞虎,等.中国南方旱涝年际年代际变化及成因研究进展[J].应用气象学报,2016,27(5):577-591.
[2]黄荣辉,孙凤英.热带西太平洋暖池的热状态及其上空的对流活动对东亚夏季气候异常的影响[J].大气科学,1994,18(2):141-151.
[3]DING Y H,SUN Y. A study on anomalous activities of East Asian summer monsoon during 1999[J]. J Meteor Soc Japan,2001,79(6):1119-1137.
[4]黄荣辉,蔡榕硕,陈际龙,等.我国旱涝气候灾害的年代际变化及其与东亚气候系统变化的关系[J].大气科学,2006,30(5):730-743.
[5]张庆云,郭恒.夏季长江淮河流域异常降水事件环流差异及机理研究[J].大气科学,2014,38(4):656-669.
[6]毕宝贵,矫梅燕,李泽椿. 2003年淮河流域洪涝暴雨的气象水文特征分析[J].南京气象学院学报,2004,27(5):577-586.
[7]张娇,郭品文,王东勇,等.淮河流域持续性强降水过程的环流变化特征[J].大气科学学报,2012,35(3):322-328.
[8]杨秀梅,马敏劲,朱安豹. 2013年7月一次江淮暴雨成因分析[J].干旱气象,2016,34(4):700-709.
[9]龚振淞,王永光,许力. 2003年夏季中高纬度环流与淮河流域降水[J].气象,2004,30(2):30-33.
[10]桂海林,周兵,金荣花. 2007年淮河流域暴雨期间大气环流特征分析[J].气象,2010,36(8):8-18.
[11]马音,陈文,王林.中国夏季淮河和江南梅雨期降水异常年际变化的气候背景及其比较[J].气象学报,2011,69(2):334-343.
[12]江志红,梁卓然,刘征宇,等. 2007年淮河流域强降水过程的水汽输送特征分析[J].大气科学,2011,35(2):361-372.
[13]程智,高辉,曹勇.索马里越赤道气流与淮河流域夏季降水关系的年代际增强[J].大气科学,2018,42(6):1363-1377.
[14]信忠保,谢志仁. ENSO事件对淮河流域降水的影响[J].海洋预报,2005,22(2):38-46.
[15]陶亦凡,孙照渤,李维京,等. ENSO与青藏高原积雪的关系及其对我国夏季降水异常的影响[J].气象,2011,37(8):919-928.
[16]高辉,王永光. ENSO对中国夏季降水可预测性变化的研究[J].气象学报,2007,65(1):131-137.
[17]宗海锋,陈烈庭,张庆云. ENSO与中国夏季降水年际变化关系的不稳定特征[J].大气科学,2010,34(1):184-192.
[18]罗连升,徐敏,梁树献.厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜与淮河流域汛期降水年际关系的稳定性分析[J].气象,2018,44(8):1073-1081.
[19]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京,气象出版社,2007. 57-66.
[20]林学椿.统计天气预报中相关系数的不稳定性问题[J].大气科学,1978,2:55-63.
[21]赵俊虎,杨柳,曾宇星,等.夏季长江中下游和华南两类雨型的环流特征及预测信号[J].大气科学,2016,40(6):1182-1198.
[22]KOTESWARAM P. The easterly jet stream in the tropics[J]. Tellus,1958,10:43-57.
[23]陈桦,丁一汇,何金海.夏季热带东风急流的结构、变化及其与亚非季风降水的关系[J].大气科学,2007,31(5):926-936.
[24]陈际龙,黄荣辉.亚洲夏季风水汽输送的年际年代际变化与中国旱涝的关系[J].地球物理学报,2008,51(2):352-359.
[25]王会军,薛峰.索马里急流的年际变化及其对半球间水汽输送和东亚夏季降水的影响[J].地球物理学报,2003,46(1):18-25.
[26]薛峰,王会军,何金海.马斯克林高压和澳大利亚高压的年际变化及其对东亚夏季风降水的影响[J].科学通报,2003,48(3):287-291.
[27]张静,朱伟军,李忠贤.北太平洋涛动与淮河流域夏季降水异常的关系[J].南京气象学院学报,2007,30(4):546-550.
[28]周波涛,夏冬冬.淮河流域夏季降水与前冬北太平洋涛动联系的年代际变化[J].中国科学:地球科学,2013,43(4):547-555.
[29]赵俊虎,封国林.全球变暖背景下中国东部夏季三类雨型预测概念模型新建[J].中国科学:地球科学,2015,45(4):414-426.
[30]李维京,李怡,陈丽娟,等.我国冬季气温与影响因子关系的年代际变化[J].应用气象学报,2013,24(4):385-396.
[31]李维京,张若楠,孙丞虎,等.中国南方旱涝年际年代际变化及成因研究进展[J].应用气象学报,2016,27(5):577-591.
© 2004-2018 中国地质图书馆版权所有 京ICP备05064691号 京公网安备11010802017129号 地址：北京市海淀区学院路29号 邮编：100083 电话：办公室：(+86 10)66554848；文献借阅、咨询服务、科技查新：66554700 |