四川省汉源县大渡河干热河谷区清代洪涝灾害特征
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摘要
[目的]分析四川省汉源县清代洪涝灾害特征及成因,为防灾减灾等工作提供科学支持。[方法]通过对大渡河干热河谷区汉源县清代洪灾等资料的搜集整理,运用数理统计分析等方法,探究了该地区清代洪灾的等级、频次、周期以及成因等问题。[结果]清代汉源县洪涝灾害共计发生55次,平均4.87a发生1次。轻度洪灾、中度洪灾、大洪灾和特大洪灾各占洪灾总数的14.55%,60.00%,21.82%和3.64%,以中度洪灾为主。从清代早期到晚期,洪灾呈波动增加的趋势且有明显的阶段性,1644—1739年和1770—1809年是洪灾少发期,1740—1769年和1810—1911年是洪灾高发期,并出现了5次重大洪灾事件。清代汉源县洪灾存在约5a,10a的震荡周期。[结论]在太阳黑子极值年、印度夏季风强盛期及南方涛动(ENSO)事件年前后出现洪灾的机率极大。清代中期以后的人口快速增长、农业垦殖、森林破坏等人为无序开发加剧了洪灾频次和严重程度。
[Objective]To analyze the characteristics and causes of flood disasters in Hanyuan County,Sichuan Province in Qing Dynasty,in order to provide scientific support for disaster preventions and mitigations.[Methods]The flood disaster data of Hanyuan County in Qing Dynasty was collected.Mathematical statistics analysis methods were used to study the level,frequency,period and causes of the flood disasters in Qing Dynasty.[Results]There were 55 flood disasters with an average frequency of once per 4.87 years in Hanyuan County in the Qing Dynasty.Mild floods,moderate floods,major floods and catastrophic floods accounted for 14.55%,60.00%,21.82% and 3.64% of the total flood disasters,respectively,with moderate floods being the main events.Flood disasters showed a fluctuated increasing trend and obvious stages.The periods during 1644—1739 and 1770—1809 were the stage of frequent flood disasters,the periods during1740—1769 and 1810—1911 were the stage of high-risk flood disasters,and there were five major flood events.The flood disasters in Hanyuan County in Qing Dynasty were marked by a shock period of about 5 years and 10 years,and the flood frequency was high.[Conclusion]There is a high probability of flood disasters in the extreme years of the sunspot,the prosperity period of India summer monsoon and the year of the ENSO events.The rapid of population growth,agricultural reclamation,forest destruction and human-made disorderly development aggravated the frequency and severity of flood disasters.
[Objective]To analyze the characteristics and causes of flood disasters in Hanyuan County,Sichuan Province in Qing Dynasty,in order to provide scientific support for disaster preventions and mitigations.[Methods]The flood disaster data of Hanyuan County in Qing Dynasty was collected.Mathematical statistics analysis methods were used to study the level,frequency,period and causes of the flood disasters in Qing Dynasty.[Results]There were 55 flood disasters with an average frequency of once per 4.87 years in Hanyuan County in the Qing Dynasty.Mild floods,moderate floods,major floods and catastrophic floods accounted for 14.55%,60.00%,21.82% and 3.64% of the total flood disasters,respectively,with moderate floods being the main events.Flood disasters showed a fluctuated increasing trend and obvious stages.The periods during 1644—1739 and 1770—1809 were the stage of frequent flood disasters,the periods during1740—1769 and 1810—1911 were the stage of high-risk flood disasters,and there were five major flood events.The flood disasters in Hanyuan County in Qing Dynasty were marked by a shock period of about 5 years and 10 years,and the flood frequency was high.[Conclusion]There is a high probability of flood disasters in the extreme years of the sunspot,the prosperity period of India summer monsoon and the year of the ENSO events.The rapid of population growth,agricultural reclamation,forest destruction and human-made disorderly development aggravated the frequency and severity of flood disasters.
引文
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[2]王绍武,黄建斌,闻新宇.古气候的启示[J].气象,2012,38(3):257-265.
[3]秦大河.气候变化科学与人类可持续发展[J].地理科学进展,2014,33(7):874-883.
[4]吴绍洪,黄季焜,刘燕华,等.气候变化对中国的影响利弊[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014,24(1):7-13.
[5]万红莲,宋海龙,朱婵婵,等.明清时期宝鸡地区旱涝灾害链及其对气候变化的响应[J].地理学报,2017,72(1):27-38.
[6]张蓓蓓,王朋,文彦君,等.明清时期关中地区干旱灾害时空特征及其对小冰期气候变化响应研究[J].水土保持研究,2018,25(3):105-111.
[7]李兴宇,毕硕本,李栋梁,等.1616-1911年河南省异常洪涝灾害的时空特征及其成因[J].气象科学,2017,37(3):348-358.
[8]Zhao Y,Shi J,Shi S,et al.Tree-ring latewood width based July-August SPEI reconstruction in South China since 1888and its possible connection with ENSO[J].Journal of Meteorological Research,2017,31(1):39-48.
[9]李敏敏.长江流域旱涝灾害的统计灾害学研究[D].西安:陕西师范大学,2014.
[10]虞泽荪.初论金沙江、雅碧江、大渡河谷干旱河谷灌丛特点[J].南充师院学报:自然科学版,1980,1(4):69-75.
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[12]四川省气象局编.四川省近五百年旱涝史料[M].成都:四川省气象局资料室,1978.
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[16]彭维英,殷淑燕,朱永超,等.历史时期以来汉江上游洪涝灾害研究[J].水土保持通报,2013,33(4):289-294.
[17]宁应城.长江上游历史洪枯水题刻调查及应用[J].人民长江,2013,44(11):14-17.
[18]施雅风,姜彤,苏布达,等.1840年以来长江大洪水演变与气候变化关系初探[J].湖泊科学,2004,16(4):289-297.
[19]葛全胜,刘路路,郑景云,等.过去千年太阳活动异常期的中国东部旱涝格局[J].地理学报,2016,71(5):707-717.
[20]张强,姜彤,吴宜进.ENSO事件对长江上游1470-2003年旱涝灾害影响分析[J].冰川冻土,2004,26(6):691-697.
[21]孙金岭,何元庆,何则,等.基于Morlet小波的清代民国河西走廊洪涝灾害与气候变化研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2016,30(1):60-65.
[22]郑晓东,鲁帆,马静.近50年淮河流域旱涝与太阳黑子的关系研究[J].水电能源科学,2013,31(2):1-4.
[23]曹永强,刘佳佳,高璐.近54年来辽西北地区降水与太阳黑子关系研究[J].地理科学,2015,35(8):1027-1032.
[24]王腾,延军平,张涛涛,等.太阳活动与ENSO事件对汉江谷地旱涝灾害影响分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2013,27(7):107-112.
[25]李峯,章典,裴卿,等.中国近五百年旱涝灾害与内乱关系的定量分析[J].SCIENTIA SINICA Terrae,2017,47(12):1395-1405.
[26]王绍武,龚道溢.近百年来的ENSO事件及其强度[J].气象,1999,5(1):8-13.
[27]时光训,刘健,马力,等.1970-2014年长江流域极端降水过程的时空变化研究[J].水文,2017,37(4):77-85.
[28]姚檀栋,段克勤.达索普冰芯积累量记录和过去400a来印度夏季风降水变化[J].中国科学:D辑,2000,30(6):619-627.
[29]陈家其,施雅风,张强,等.从长江上游近500年历史气候看1860年、1870年大洪水气候变化背景[J].湖泊科学,2006,18(5):476-483.
[30]马利华,韩延本,尹志强,等.印度夏季风降水周期性研究[J].自然灾害学报,2007,16(1):23-26.
[31]魏军,毕硕本,颜停霞,等.1640-1909年长江下游地区冬季冷暖特征研究[J].自然灾害学报,2015,24(2):136-146.
[32]林汀水.一七八六年大渡河的地震洪水考察[J].厦门大学学报:哲学社会科学版,1983(1):74-77.
[33]林鸿荣.历史时期四川森林的变迁(续)[J].农业考古,1986(1):240-248.
[34]朱圣钟.历史时期四川凉山地区森林植被的变迁[J].中国历史地理论丛,2007,22(2):43-52.