渭河流域蒸发皿蒸发量时空变化与驱动因素
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摘要
以渭河流域为研究区,获取流域内21个气象站1978—2002年20 cm口径蒸发皿和1985—2015年E-601型蒸发器日观测资料,采用线性回归模型重构各站点蒸发皿蒸发数据资料,Mann-Kendall趋势检验与空间插值法分析流域蒸发皿蒸发量的时空变换特征,敏感性分析法定量评估各气象要素对蒸发皿蒸发量变化的贡献。结果表明:流域多年平均蒸发皿蒸发能力低于黄河流域的平均水平,蒸发皿蒸发量介于1 015. 51 705. 6 mm,其空间分布状况表现为由北向南逐渐减少;年蒸发皿蒸发量总体呈增加趋势,变化率为1. 371 mm·a~(-1);蒸发皿蒸发量对实际水汽压最敏感;气温是影响蒸发皿蒸发量的主导因子,其贡献率为304. 5%。
It is better to quantitative assess the spatiotemporal variation and driving factors of pan evaporation for understanding the hydrological cycle and water resources management. In this study,it was attempted to use the data of daily pan evaporation observed with 20 cm pan from 1978 to 2002 and E-601 evaporator from 1985 to 2015 at 21 meteorological stations in the Weihe River Basin. A linear regression model was used to reconstruct the evaporation data at the observation sites. Spatiotemporal change of pan evaporation was analyzed using the Mann-Kendall test. Sensitivity analysis was employed to evaluate the contribution of meteorological factors to pan evaporation. The results showed that the multi-year average evaporation capacity of the evaporating dish in the study area was lower than that in the Yellow River Basin and the pan evaporation values were 1 015. 5-1 705. 6 mm. the mean annual pan evaporation decreased from the north to the south. The annual mean evaporation increased generally with an increase rate of 1. 371 mm·a~(-1) in the whole watershed. The pan evaporation was the most sensitive to the actual vapor pressure. Temperature was the dominant factor affecting pan evaporation,and its contribution rate was approximately 304. 5%.
It is better to quantitative assess the spatiotemporal variation and driving factors of pan evaporation for understanding the hydrological cycle and water resources management. In this study,it was attempted to use the data of daily pan evaporation observed with 20 cm pan from 1978 to 2002 and E-601 evaporator from 1985 to 2015 at 21 meteorological stations in the Weihe River Basin. A linear regression model was used to reconstruct the evaporation data at the observation sites. Spatiotemporal change of pan evaporation was analyzed using the Mann-Kendall test. Sensitivity analysis was employed to evaluate the contribution of meteorological factors to pan evaporation. The results showed that the multi-year average evaporation capacity of the evaporating dish in the study area was lower than that in the Yellow River Basin and the pan evaporation values were 1 015. 5-1 705. 6 mm. the mean annual pan evaporation decreased from the north to the south. The annual mean evaporation increased generally with an increase rate of 1. 371 mm·a~(-1) in the whole watershed. The pan evaporation was the most sensitive to the actual vapor pressure. Temperature was the dominant factor affecting pan evaporation,and its contribution rate was approximately 304. 5%.
引文
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[11]左德鹏,徐宗学,程磊,等.渭河流域潜在蒸散量时空变化及其突变特征[J].资源科学,2011,33(5):975-982.[Zuo Depeng,Xu Zongxue,Cheng Lei,et al.Spatial-temporal variations and mutations of potential evapotranspiration in the Wei River basin[J].Resources Science,2011,33(5):975-982.]
[12]周杜辉.渭河流域经济空间分异及其优化对策研究[D].西安:西北大学,2011.[Zhou Duhui.Spatial Dissimilarity of Economies and Optimizing Strategies in the Wei River Valley[D].Xi’an:Northwest University,2011.]
[13]班富孝.E-601型蒸发器与20 cm口径蒸发皿折算系数[J].南水北调与水利科技,1999(1):46-48.[Ban Fuxiao.E-601type and 20 cm pan evaporation conversion coefficient[J].South to North Water Transfers and Water Science&Technology,1999(1):46-48.]
[14]邓晓斌.基于Arc GIS两种空间插值方法的比较[J].地理空间信息,2008,6(6):85-87.[Deng Xiaobin.Comparison between two space interpolation methods based on Arc GIS[J].Geospatial Information,2008,6(6):85-87.]
[15]魏继德.空间插值方法的比较与优化[D].福建:福州大学,2010.[Wei Jide.The Comparison and Optimization of Spatial Interpolation Approaches[D].Fujian:Fuzhou University,2010.]
[16]Mann H B.Nonparametric test against trend[J].Econometrica,1945,13(3):245-259.
[17]Kendall M G.Rank correlation methods[J].British Journal of Psychology,1955,25(1):86-91.
[18]赵广举,穆兴民,田鹏,等.近60年黄河中游水沙变化趋势及其影响因素分析[J].资源科学,2012,34(6):1 070-1 078.[Zhao Guangju,Mu Xingmin,Tian Peng,et al.The variation trend of streamflow and sediment flux in the middle reaches of Yellow River over the past 60 years and the influencing factors[J].Resources Science,2012,34(6):1 070-1 078.]
[19]Yue S,Pilon P,Cavadias G.Power of the Mann-Kendall and Spearman’s rho tests for detecting monotonic trends in hydrological series[J].Journal of Hydrology,2002,259(1):254-271.
[20]韩盟伟,赵广举,穆兴民,等.黄土高原1959-2015年潜在蒸发量的时空变化[J].干旱区地理,2017(5):997-1 004.[Han Mengwei,Zhao Guangju,Mu Xingmin,et al.Spatial and temporal variations of potential evapotranspiration on the Loess Plateau during 1959-2015[J].Arid Land Geography,2017(5):997-1 004.]
[21]Xu L,Shi Z,Wang Y,et al.Spatiotemporal variation and driving forces of reference evapotranspiration in Jing River Basin,Northwest China[J].Hydrological Processes,2015,29(23):4 846-4 862.
[22]Mccuen R H.A sensitivity and error analysis cf procedures used for estimating evaporation[J].Journal of the American Water Resources Association,1974,10(3):486-497.
[23]Zheng H,Liu X,Liu C,et al.Assessing contributions to panevaporation trends in Haihe River Basin,China[J].Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2009,114(D24):1-12.
[24]邱新法,刘昌明,曾燕.黄河流域近40年蒸发皿蒸发量的气候变化特征[J].自然资源学报,2003,18(4):437-442.[Qiu Xinfa,Liu Changming,Zeng Yan.Changes of pan evaporation in the recent 40 years over the Yellow River Basin[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2003,18(4):437-442.]
[25]柳春,王守荣,梁有叶,等.1961-2010年黄河流域蒸发皿蒸发量变化及影响因子分析[J].气候变化研究进展,2013,9(5):327-334.[Liu Chun,Wang Shourong,Liang Youye,et al.Analysis of pan evaporation change and the influence factors in the Yellow River Basin in 1961-2010[J].Progressus Inquisitiones De Mutatione Climatis,2013,9(5):327-334.]
[2]韩鹏飞,王旭升,胡晓农,等.巴丹吉林沙漠湖泊水面蒸发与气象要素的动态关系[J].干旱区研究,2018,35(5):1 012-1 020.[Han Pengfei,Wang Xusheng,Hu Xiaonong,et al.Dynamic relationship between lake surface evaporation and meteorological factors in the Badain Jaran Desert[J].Arid Zone Research,2018,35(5):1 012-1 020.]
[3]杨莲梅,关学锋,张迎新.亚洲中部干旱区降水异常的大气环流特征[J].干旱区研究,2018,35(2):1 012-1 020.[Yang Lianmei,Guan Xuefeng,Zhang Yingxin.Atomspheric cirvulation characteristics of precipitation anomalu in arid regions in central A-sia[J].Arid Zone Research,2018,35(2):1 012-1 020.]
[4]Roderick M L,Rotstayn L D,Farquhar G D,et al.On the attribution of changing pan evaporation[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2007,34(34):251-270.
[5]Zhang Q,Qi T,Li J,et al.Spatiotemporal variations of pan evaporation in China during 1960-2005:Changing patterns and causes[J].International Journal of Climatology,2015,35(6):903-912.
[6]刘敏,沈彦俊,曾燕,等.近50年中国蒸发皿蒸发量变化趋势及原因[J].地理学报,2009,64(3):259-269.[Liu Min,Shen Yanjun,Zeng Yan,et al.Changing trend of pan evaporation and its cause over the past 50 years in China[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2009,64(3):259-269.]
[7]Ning T,Li Z,Liu W,et al.Evolution of potential evapotranspiration in the Northern Loess Plateau of China:Recent trends and climatic drivers[J].International Journal of Climatology,2016,36(12):4 019-4 028.
[8]Wang T,Zhang J,Sun F,et al.Pan evaporation paradox and evaporative demand from the past to the future over China:A review[J].Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Water,2017,4(3):e1207.
[9]左洪超,鲍艳,张存杰,等.蒸发皿蒸发量的物理意义、近40年变化趋势的分析和数值试验研究[J].地球物理学报,2006,49(3):680-688.[Zuo Hongchao,Bao Yan,Zhang Cunjie,et al.An analytic and numerical study on the physical meaning of pan evaporation and its trend in recent 40 years Chinese[J].Chinese Journal of Geographysics,2006,49(3):680-688.]
[10]刘燕,胡安焱.渭河流域近50年降水特征变化及其对水资源的影响[J].干旱区资源与环境,2006,20(1):87-89.[Liu Yan,Hu Anyan.Changes of precipitation characters along Wei River basin in 50 years and its influence on water resources[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2006,20(1):87-89.]
[11]左德鹏,徐宗学,程磊,等.渭河流域潜在蒸散量时空变化及其突变特征[J].资源科学,2011,33(5):975-982.[Zuo Depeng,Xu Zongxue,Cheng Lei,et al.Spatial-temporal variations and mutations of potential evapotranspiration in the Wei River basin[J].Resources Science,2011,33(5):975-982.]
[12]周杜辉.渭河流域经济空间分异及其优化对策研究[D].西安:西北大学,2011.[Zhou Duhui.Spatial Dissimilarity of Economies and Optimizing Strategies in the Wei River Valley[D].Xi’an:Northwest University,2011.]
[13]班富孝.E-601型蒸发器与20 cm口径蒸发皿折算系数[J].南水北调与水利科技,1999(1):46-48.[Ban Fuxiao.E-601type and 20 cm pan evaporation conversion coefficient[J].South to North Water Transfers and Water Science&Technology,1999(1):46-48.]
[14]邓晓斌.基于Arc GIS两种空间插值方法的比较[J].地理空间信息,2008,6(6):85-87.[Deng Xiaobin.Comparison between two space interpolation methods based on Arc GIS[J].Geospatial Information,2008,6(6):85-87.]
[15]魏继德.空间插值方法的比较与优化[D].福建:福州大学,2010.[Wei Jide.The Comparison and Optimization of Spatial Interpolation Approaches[D].Fujian:Fuzhou University,2010.]
[16]Mann H B.Nonparametric test against trend[J].Econometrica,1945,13(3):245-259.
[17]Kendall M G.Rank correlation methods[J].British Journal of Psychology,1955,25(1):86-91.
[18]赵广举,穆兴民,田鹏,等.近60年黄河中游水沙变化趋势及其影响因素分析[J].资源科学,2012,34(6):1 070-1 078.[Zhao Guangju,Mu Xingmin,Tian Peng,et al.The variation trend of streamflow and sediment flux in the middle reaches of Yellow River over the past 60 years and the influencing factors[J].Resources Science,2012,34(6):1 070-1 078.]
[19]Yue S,Pilon P,Cavadias G.Power of the Mann-Kendall and Spearman’s rho tests for detecting monotonic trends in hydrological series[J].Journal of Hydrology,2002,259(1):254-271.
[20]韩盟伟,赵广举,穆兴民,等.黄土高原1959-2015年潜在蒸发量的时空变化[J].干旱区地理,2017(5):997-1 004.[Han Mengwei,Zhao Guangju,Mu Xingmin,et al.Spatial and temporal variations of potential evapotranspiration on the Loess Plateau during 1959-2015[J].Arid Land Geography,2017(5):997-1 004.]
[21]Xu L,Shi Z,Wang Y,et al.Spatiotemporal variation and driving forces of reference evapotranspiration in Jing River Basin,Northwest China[J].Hydrological Processes,2015,29(23):4 846-4 862.
[22]Mccuen R H.A sensitivity and error analysis cf procedures used for estimating evaporation[J].Journal of the American Water Resources Association,1974,10(3):486-497.
[23]Zheng H,Liu X,Liu C,et al.Assessing contributions to panevaporation trends in Haihe River Basin,China[J].Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2009,114(D24):1-12.
[24]邱新法,刘昌明,曾燕.黄河流域近40年蒸发皿蒸发量的气候变化特征[J].自然资源学报,2003,18(4):437-442.[Qiu Xinfa,Liu Changming,Zeng Yan.Changes of pan evaporation in the recent 40 years over the Yellow River Basin[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2003,18(4):437-442.]
[25]柳春,王守荣,梁有叶,等.1961-2010年黄河流域蒸发皿蒸发量变化及影响因子分析[J].气候变化研究进展,2013,9(5):327-334.[Liu Chun,Wang Shourong,Liang Youye,et al.Analysis of pan evaporation change and the influence factors in the Yellow River Basin in 1961-2010[J].Progressus Inquisitiones De Mutatione Climatis,2013,9(5):327-334.]
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