考虑流量加权的高速公路网脆弱性研究
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摘要
随着高速公路的逐步网络化,突发事件可能造成路网中的部分节点或路段失去其通行能力,进而通过节点或路段的耦合关系影响整个路网的运行效率。为保障高速公路网的安全畅通运营,本文提出考虑流量加权的高速公路网脆弱性评价方法。首先,针对传统复杂网络理论介数指标计算中路径选择与实际情况的偏离,本文综合考虑客货车等不同车型组成及驾驶员出行选择行为的影响,定义了概率介数指标以反映不确定性选择场景下的节点或路段的网络重要度;其次,以出行效率及出行需求满足率作为路网脆弱性测度指标,结合网络交通量的随机均衡加载,提出考虑流量加权的高速公路网脆弱性评估方法,以量化节点或路段失效后对高速公路网的影响程度;最后,结合山东省区域高速公路网和高速公路收费数据,按照不同的节点/路段的重要度指标降序排列进行蓄意攻击,分析高速公路网脆弱性。实例结果表明:无论是节点还是路段,与传统的介数攻击模式相比,按照概率介数进行蓄意攻击时路网表现出更强的脆弱性;与路段相比,相同失效比例下节点失效对路网运营的影响要大于路段失效对路网性能的影响,路网表现出更强的脆弱性;与其他攻击方式相比,按照节点概率介数进行攻击时路网表现出更强的脆弱性,说明高速公路管理者应加强对概率介数大的节点保护。
Within the networking process of expressways,some emergent incidents will lead to the failure of traffic capacity on some nodes or sections,and further affect the travel efficiency of the whole road network through coupling action of the nodes or sections.In order to ensure security and smoothness of traffic on expressway network,vulnerability assessment methodology that considers traffic flow weighting is proposed in the paper.In view of the deviation between the calculated path selection and actual situations during the calculation of betweeenness index of traditional complex network theory,in this paper travel route choice behavior and share of passenger and freight traffic flow are comprehensively considered,the probability betweenness index is defined to reflect the degree of network importance of the node or road sections which are selected under random scenarios.Second,the travel efficiency and satisfied rate of travel demand are taken as the quantified vulnerability index of expressways after failure of nodes or sections.The expressways vulnerability assessment methodology is put forward by combining with stochastic-balanceable traffic flow assignment.Finally,as per the descending order of importance degree of nodes and sections,the vulnerability of expressways is analyzed under different attacked modes on the basis of regional expressway network and toll data in Shandong Province.The results show that the regional expressway in Shandong Province is robust against traditional betweenness-based but fragile for choice betweenness-based malicious attacks.Under the identical removed fraction,node-based attack has larger influence on the normal operation of expressway network and more vulnerable than link-based attack.The largest flow betweenness node-based attacks will destroy the most effect on expressways among the different attack modes,which proves that the management department of expressway shall pay more attention to protection of large choice betweenness nodes.
Within the networking process of expressways,some emergent incidents will lead to the failure of traffic capacity on some nodes or sections,and further affect the travel efficiency of the whole road network through coupling action of the nodes or sections.In order to ensure security and smoothness of traffic on expressway network,vulnerability assessment methodology that considers traffic flow weighting is proposed in the paper.In view of the deviation between the calculated path selection and actual situations during the calculation of betweeenness index of traditional complex network theory,in this paper travel route choice behavior and share of passenger and freight traffic flow are comprehensively considered,the probability betweenness index is defined to reflect the degree of network importance of the node or road sections which are selected under random scenarios.Second,the travel efficiency and satisfied rate of travel demand are taken as the quantified vulnerability index of expressways after failure of nodes or sections.The expressways vulnerability assessment methodology is put forward by combining with stochastic-balanceable traffic flow assignment.Finally,as per the descending order of importance degree of nodes and sections,the vulnerability of expressways is analyzed under different attacked modes on the basis of regional expressway network and toll data in Shandong Province.The results show that the regional expressway in Shandong Province is robust against traditional betweenness-based but fragile for choice betweenness-based malicious attacks.Under the identical removed fraction,node-based attack has larger influence on the normal operation of expressway network and more vulnerable than link-based attack.The largest flow betweenness node-based attacks will destroy the most effect on expressways among the different attack modes,which proves that the management department of expressway shall pay more attention to protection of large choice betweenness nodes.
引文
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[14]鲁楠.高速公路收费费率对车辆路径选择行为的影响研究[D].北京:北京交通大学,2016.
[15]冯慧芳,李彩虹,王瑞.河谷型城市公交网络脆弱性研究-以兰州市为例[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2016,10(1):217-222.
[2] LATORA V,MARCHIORI M.Is the Boston Subway a Small-World Network?[J].Physica A,2002,314:109-113.
[3]胡萍,范文礼.不同攻击模式下城市公交网络抗毁性分析[J].计算机应用研究,2014,31(11):3385-3387.
[4] ZHANG Jian-hua,Xu Xiao-ming,Hong Liu,et al.Networked Analysis of the Shanghai Subway Network,in China[J].Physica A:Statistical Mechanics and its Applications,2011,390(23-24):4562-4570.
[5] ZHANG J,HU F,WANG S,et al.Structural Vulnerability and Intervention of High Speed Railway Networks[J].Physica A:Statistical Mechanics and its Applications,2016,462:743-751.
[6] JENELIUS E,PETERSEN T,MATTSSON L.Importance and Exposure in Road Network Vulnerability Analysis[J].Transportation Research Part A:Policy and Practice,2006,40(7):537-560.
[7] EL-RASHIDY R A,GRANT-MULLER S M.An Assessment Method for Highway Network Vulnerability[J].Journal of Transport Geography,2014,34:34-43.
[8] CATS O.The Robustness Value of Public Transport Development Plans[J].Journal of Transport Geography,2016,51:236-246.
[9] BALIJEPALLI C,OPPONG O.Measuring Vulnerability of Road Network Considering the Extent of Serviceability of Critical Road Links in Urban Areas[J].Journal of Transport Geography,2014,39:145-155.
[10]秦进,史峰,邓连波,等.道路交通网络效率定量评价方法及其应用[J].吉林大学学报:工学版,2010,40(1):47-51.
[11]邱松林,程琳,许项东.基于路径长度的Logit型随机用户均衡模型[J].东南大学学报:自然科学版,2012,42(1):173-176.
[12] YAO EJ,SONG YY.Study on Eco-Route Planning Algorithm And Environmental Impact Assessment[J].Journal of Intelligent Transportation Systems,2013,17(1):42-53.
[13]杨扬,姚恩建,王梅英,等.电动汽车混入条件下的随机用户均衡分配模型[J].中国公路学报,2015,28(9):91-97.
[14]鲁楠.高速公路收费费率对车辆路径选择行为的影响研究[D].北京:北京交通大学,2016.
[15]冯慧芳,李彩虹,王瑞.河谷型城市公交网络脆弱性研究-以兰州市为例[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2016,10(1):217-222.
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