三峡水库蓄水期洞庭湖区水文情势变化研究
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摘要
洞庭湖湖区的水文情势变化直接影响到区域洪水灾害防治、水资源利用、水环境保护和水生态安全维护,意义重大。基于实测资料分析了三峡水库运行前后洞庭湖区水文情势变化,受三口分流量减少和来水偏枯等综合因素影响,2003～2016年8～11月洞庭湖入、出湖水量较1981～2002年分别减少26%和23. 7%,湖区水位下降0. 76～1. 27 m。建立了长江与洞庭湖一、二维耦合水动力模型,模拟计算了三峡水库蓄水期初设调度方案、优化调度方案和规程调度方案下长江干流及洞庭湖区的水文过程,3种方案对应的城陵矶站蓄水期多年旬平均流量分别减少1 220,928,900 m~3/s,湖区鹿角站蓄水期多年旬平均水位分别降低1. 47,1. 23,1. 20 m。实际调度流量减小812 m~3/s,水位降低1. 14 m,表明实际调度最优。从不同调度方案比较来看,实际调度提前了起蓄时间,减缓了对洞庭湖区水文情势的不利影响。
The variation of hydrological regime in Dongting Lake would directly affect regional flood prevention,water resources utilization,water environment protection and water ecology protection,which is of great significance. Based on the measured data,the variation of the hydrological situation in Dongting Lake area before and after the Three Gorges Reservoir operation was analyzed. The results showed that the inflowing and outflowing water volume of Dongting Lake from 2003 to 2016 had decreased by 26% and 23. 7% respectively and the water level in lake area dropped 0. 76 ～ 1. 27 m from August to November,compared with the period from 1981 to 2002,due to the combined factors,such as the diversion decrease of three distributaries from Jinjiang River and the decrease of incoming water,etc. A 1D and 2D coupled hydrodynamic model of the Yangtze River and Dongting Lake was established to simulate the hydrological processes of the study area during the water storage period of Three Gorges Reservoir under the initial-designed scheduling scheme,optimal scheduling scheme and protocol scheduling scheme.The corresponding average annual flow of Chenglingji station decreased 1 220,928 m~3/s and 900 m~3/s respectively,and the average annual water level of the Lujiao Station in the lake area decreased 1. 47,1. 23 m and 1. 20 m respectively; however,the average flow decreased 812 m~3/s and the water level decreased by 1. 14 m under the actual scheduling practice,indicating that the actual scheduling is optimal. From the comparison of different scheduling schemes,the actual dispatching advanced the storage starting time and slowed down the adverse impact on the hydrological situation in Dongting Lake area.
The variation of hydrological regime in Dongting Lake would directly affect regional flood prevention,water resources utilization,water environment protection and water ecology protection,which is of great significance. Based on the measured data,the variation of the hydrological situation in Dongting Lake area before and after the Three Gorges Reservoir operation was analyzed. The results showed that the inflowing and outflowing water volume of Dongting Lake from 2003 to 2016 had decreased by 26% and 23. 7% respectively and the water level in lake area dropped 0. 76 ～ 1. 27 m from August to November,compared with the period from 1981 to 2002,due to the combined factors,such as the diversion decrease of three distributaries from Jinjiang River and the decrease of incoming water,etc. A 1D and 2D coupled hydrodynamic model of the Yangtze River and Dongting Lake was established to simulate the hydrological processes of the study area during the water storage period of Three Gorges Reservoir under the initial-designed scheduling scheme,optimal scheduling scheme and protocol scheduling scheme.The corresponding average annual flow of Chenglingji station decreased 1 220,928 m~3/s and 900 m~3/s respectively,and the average annual water level of the Lujiao Station in the lake area decreased 1. 47,1. 23 m and 1. 20 m respectively; however,the average flow decreased 812 m~3/s and the water level decreased by 1. 14 m under the actual scheduling practice,indicating that the actual scheduling is optimal. From the comparison of different scheduling schemes,the actual dispatching advanced the storage starting time and slowed down the adverse impact on the hydrological situation in Dongting Lake area.
引文
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[2]孙占东,黄群,姜加虎,等.洞庭湖近年干旱与三峡蓄水影响分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2015,24(2):251-256.
[3]于亚文.洞庭湖水沙变化过程及其对人类活动的响应研究[D].上海:华东师范大学,2018.
[4]孙思瑞,谢平,赵江艳,等.洞庭湖三口洪峰流量和水位变异特性分析[J].湖泊科学,2018,30(3):812-824.
[5]代稳,王金凤,仝双梅,等.近60年长江荆江三口水沙变化过程及对洞庭湖的影响[J].水土保持研究,2017,24(6):255-261.
[6]刘晓群,戴斌祥.三峡水库运行以来洞庭湖水文条件变化与对策[J].水利水电科技进展,2017,37(6):25-31.
[7]谢文君,岳翠莹,张文.洞庭湖1996-2016年时空特征变化研究[J].水利信息化,2017(5):32-38.
[8]渠庚,唐峰,刘小斌.荆江与洞庭湖水沙变化及影响[J].水资源与水工程学报,2007,18(3):94-100.
[9]李景保,周永强,欧朝敏,等.洞庭湖与长江水体交换能力演变及对三峡水库运行的响应[J].地理学报,2013,68(1):108-117.
[10]戴雪,杨桂山,万荣荣,等.长江通过江湖水文水动力交互对其支流水域东洞庭湖的影响[J].地理学报,2018,28(8):1072-1084.
[11]廖小红,朱枫,黎昔春,等.典型年洪水的洞庭湖槽蓄特性研究[J].中国农村水利水电,2018(5):134-137.
[12]孙思瑞,谢平,陈柯兵,等.三峡水库蓄水期不同调度方案对洞庭湖出口水位的影响[J].长江流域资源与环境,2018,27(8):1819-1826.
[13]李景保,张照庆,欧朝敏,等.三峡水库不同调度方式运行期洞庭湖区的水情响应[J].地理学报,2011,66(9):1251-1260.
[14]刘氚,张可能,戴明龙,等.荆江-洞庭湖河网一二维嵌套水动力学模型研究[J].沈阳农业大学学报,2017,48(5):576-583.
[15]Nash J E,Sutcliffe J V.River flow forecasting through conceptual models part I-A discussion of principles[J].Journal of Hydrology,1980,10(3):282-290.
[16]Dole W P,Jackson D L.Relative error and variability in blood flow measurements with radiolabeled microspheres[J].American Journal of Physiology,1982,243(3):371-378.
[17]Moriasi D N,Arnold J G,Van Liew M W,et al.Model evaluation guidelines for systematic quantification of accuracy in watershed simulations[J].Transactions of the ASABE,2007,50(3):885-900.
[18]朱玲玲,陈剑池,袁晶.洞庭湖和鄱阳湖泥沙冲淤特征及三峡水库对其影响[J].水科学进展,2014,25(3):348-357.