基于熵权-正态云模型的泥石流灾害易发性评价
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摘要
近年来,由于极端天气事件频发和工程建设活动加剧,泥石流灾害对人类的威胁愈加严峻。因此,在综合分析泥石流灾害发育特征及形成机理的基础上,进行泥石流灾害易发性评价对防灾减灾工程活动具有指导意义。选取沟谷岸坡坡度、沟床纵坡比降、植被覆盖率、单位面积固体物源储量、汇水面积、雨季降雨量建立评价指标体系,采用熵权法确定评价指标权重,将泥石流灾害易发性分为高易发、中易发、低易发和不易发四级,建立基于正态云模型的泥石流灾害易发性评价方法,并以西秦岭地区5条泥石流沟为例验证了该评价模型的合理性。进一步将该模型用于陕西吴堡井沟泥石流灾害易发性评价,结果表明井沟泥石流具有中易发性,评价结果与实际相符。
In recent years, due to the frequent occurrence of extreme weather events and intensified engineering construction activities, the threat of human debris flow disasters has become more and more serious. Therefore, on the basis of comprehensive analysis of the development characteristics and formation mechanism of debris flow hazards, the evaluation of debris flow hazard susceptibility has guiding significance for disaster prevention and mitigation engineering activities. The slope index, the longitudinal slope ratio of the gully bed, the vegetation coverage rate, the solid source reserve per unit area, the catchment area, and the rainfall in the rainy season are selected to establish an evaluation index system. The entropy weight method is used to determine the weight of the evaluation index, and the debris flow disaster is easy to occur. The traits are divided into high-easy, medium-to-fat, low-prone and difficult-to-develop four-level, and the evaluation method of debris flow hazard based on normal cloud model is established. The rationality of the evaluation model is verified by taking five mudslides in the West Qinling area as an example. Sex. The model was further applied to the evaluation of the susceptibility to debris flow in Wubaojinggou, Shaanxi. The results showed that the debris flow was moderately susceptibility, and the evaluation results were consistent with the actual situation.
In recent years, due to the frequent occurrence of extreme weather events and intensified engineering construction activities, the threat of human debris flow disasters has become more and more serious. Therefore, on the basis of comprehensive analysis of the development characteristics and formation mechanism of debris flow hazards, the evaluation of debris flow hazard susceptibility has guiding significance for disaster prevention and mitigation engineering activities. The slope index, the longitudinal slope ratio of the gully bed, the vegetation coverage rate, the solid source reserve per unit area, the catchment area, and the rainfall in the rainy season are selected to establish an evaluation index system. The entropy weight method is used to determine the weight of the evaluation index, and the debris flow disaster is easy to occur. The traits are divided into high-easy, medium-to-fat, low-prone and difficult-to-develop four-level, and the evaluation method of debris flow hazard based on normal cloud model is established. The rationality of the evaluation model is verified by taking five mudslides in the West Qinling area as an example. Sex. The model was further applied to the evaluation of the susceptibility to debris flow in Wubaojinggou, Shaanxi. The results showed that the debris flow was moderately susceptibility, and the evaluation results were consistent with the actual situation.
引文
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