中国高龄老年人的生活自理能力变化轨迹及队列差异——基于固定年龄与动态年龄指标的测算

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英文篇名：Decline and Cohort Differences in Activities of Daily Living of the Chinese Oldest-old 作者：张文娟 ; Marcus ; W.Feldman ; 杜鹏 英文作者：Zhang Wenjuan;Marcus W.Feldman;Du Peng;Center for Population and Development Studies, Renmin University of China;Morrison Institute for Population and Resource Studies, Stanford University;Institute of Gerontology, Renmin University of China; 关键词：高龄老年人 ; 生活自理能力 ; 年龄效应 ; 队列效应 英文关键词：The Oldest-old;;ADL;;Age Effect;;Cohort Effect 中文刊名：人口研究 英文刊名：Population Research 机构：中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心;斯坦福大学莫里森人口与资源研究所;中国人民大学老年学研究所; 出版日期：2019-05-29 出版单位：人口研究 年：2019 期：03 基金：国家自然科学基金重大项目“特征、规律与前景——老龄社会的人口学基础研究”(71490731)的支持 语种：中文; 页：5-18 页数：14 CN：11-1489/C ISSN：1000-6087 分类号：D669.6;C924.24

摘要

文章基于中国老年人健康长寿影响因素调查(CLHLS)数据,利用混合效应的多层线性模型对1899～1908、1909～1918和1919～1928年3个出生队列的中国高龄老年人的生活自理能力衰退过程进行了分析,以揭示这一过程中的年龄、队列效应以及内部异质性。分析结果表明,年龄效应和队列效应同时存在于高龄老年人的生活自理能力衰退过程。不同年龄的老年人在死亡前的生活自理能力衰退过程具有趋同性,与日历年龄相比,尚余存活时间与生活自理能力变化之间的关联更为密切。高龄老年人的生活自理能力变化存在显著的队列差异,不同社会经济背景、童年经历、健康行为以及生活环境对高龄老年人的生活自理能力变化轨迹影响显著,也是造成队列差异的重要因素。
        Using the data of Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey(CLHLS), this study examines the decline process of Activities of Daily Living(ADL) among the Chinese oldest-old born in 1899-1908, 1909-1918 and 1919-1928 by hierarchical linear model(HLM) with mixed effects. This study aims to analyze the age effect, cohort effect, and internal heterogeneity in the process. Results show that there are both age effects and cohort effects in the process of ADL decline among the oldest-old. Similar patterns of ADL decline have been found among the oldest-old died at different ages. Compared to the chronological age, the remaining survival time before death has stronger predictive power on ADL changes. There are significant cohort differences in ADL changes among the oldest-old. Different socio-economic statuses, health behaviors, childhood experiences and living environments affect ADL change trajectories among the oldest-old, and also contribute to cohort differences.

引文

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    (1)据此,本研究在回归模型中将中心化后的时间变量“年龄”命名为“age-91”,将中心化后的时间变量“尚余存活时间”命名为“RST-3”。