一种城市综合承载力双向复合动态评价方法及实证研究
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摘要
随着城市的发展,其对资源、生态环境、基础设施、社会经济等各种承载的需求同步增长,单一承载力逐渐无法满足对城市发展可持续状态的综合全面评估.城市综合承载力是社会、经济、环境、资源协调作用和协调程度的具体表征.综合承载力与人口规模、社会经济活动发展带来的压力之间存在动态互动关系,只有承载力和压力维持动态平衡,才能实现城市系统的可持续发展.本文通过构建城市双向复合动态可持续评估方法,量化负向城市压力(UP)和正向城市综合承载力(UCCC)及其二者之间的复合动态关系,结合层次分析法和蒙特卡洛模拟,从经济、资源、社会三方面构建评价指标,综合考虑各影响因素的不确定性和相互作用,实现逐个单点时间城市综合承载力的概率分布模拟,进而通过复合动态关系判断模型实现单个区域单点时间的可持续发展状态的判断.最后,以广州市为例,对所提出方法进行应用.结果表明,2004—2016年,广州市的综合承载力和城市压力相互协调、相互适应,城市发展整体呈可持续状态.但2012年以来资源环境承载力有一定的下降,尤其是水资源承载力和大气环境承载力下降,需要引起重视.
When a city develops, demands on resources, the environment, infrastructure, social services increase simultaneously. A single measure of carrying capacity is insufficient as a comprehensive assessment of the urban sustainable development state. Comprehensive carrying capacity is a concrete representation of social economic, environmental and resource available. There is a dynamic interaction between comprehensive carrying capacity and the pressure brought by increasing population and associated economic development. Only by maintaining the dynamic balance between the carrying capacity and population needs can the sustainable development of the urban system be realized. In this paper, by construction bidirectional composite dynamic sustainable assessment method, the negative urban pressure(UP), the forward urban comprehensive carrying capacity(UCCC) and their complex dynamic relationship were quantified. Combining the analytic hierarchy process(AHP) and Monte Carlo simulation, the uncertainty and interaction of each influencing factor were considered synthetically to realize the probability distribution simulation of the urban comprehensive carrying capacity at a single time point. Furthermore, the sustainable development state at a single time of a single region can be judged by a composite dynamic evaluation method. Taking Guangzhou as an example, the application of the proposed method showed than the comprehensive carrying capacity and the urban pressure of Guangzhou were coordinated to each other from 2004 to 2016, and the overall development of the city was sustainable. However, since 2012, the carrying capacity of resources and environment declined, especially the carrying capacity of water resources and atmospheric environment, and there need attention.
When a city develops, demands on resources, the environment, infrastructure, social services increase simultaneously. A single measure of carrying capacity is insufficient as a comprehensive assessment of the urban sustainable development state. Comprehensive carrying capacity is a concrete representation of social economic, environmental and resource available. There is a dynamic interaction between comprehensive carrying capacity and the pressure brought by increasing population and associated economic development. Only by maintaining the dynamic balance between the carrying capacity and population needs can the sustainable development of the urban system be realized. In this paper, by construction bidirectional composite dynamic sustainable assessment method, the negative urban pressure(UP), the forward urban comprehensive carrying capacity(UCCC) and their complex dynamic relationship were quantified. Combining the analytic hierarchy process(AHP) and Monte Carlo simulation, the uncertainty and interaction of each influencing factor were considered synthetically to realize the probability distribution simulation of the urban comprehensive carrying capacity at a single time point. Furthermore, the sustainable development state at a single time of a single region can be judged by a composite dynamic evaluation method. Taking Guangzhou as an example, the application of the proposed method showed than the comprehensive carrying capacity and the urban pressure of Guangzhou were coordinated to each other from 2004 to 2016, and the overall development of the city was sustainable. However, since 2012, the carrying capacity of resources and environment declined, especially the carrying capacity of water resources and atmospheric environment, and there need attention.
引文
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欧弢.2017.基于空间分析的资源环境承载力研究[D].昆明:昆明理工大学
石忆邵,尹昌应,王贺封,等.2013.城市综合承载力的研究进展及展望[J].地理研究,32(1):133-145
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王亚文.2006.基于状态空间法的城市生态系统承载力研究[D].西安:西北大学
文宗川,郝晓燕,巩芳,等.2009.城市生态可承载机制研究[J].生产力研究,(6):62-63
翁美娥.2013.福州城市综合承载力评价[D].福州:福建师范大学
徐琳瑜,杨志峰,李巍.2005.城市生态系统承载力理论与评价方法[J].生态学报,25(4):771-777
徐琳瑜,杨志峰.2011.城市生态系统承载力[M].北京:北京师范大学出版社
Xu X,Xu Z,Peng L,et al.2011.Water resources carrying capacity forecast of jining based on non-linear dynamics model[J].Energy Procedia,5(22):1742-1747
叶裕民.2007.解读"城市综合承载能力"[J].前线,(4):26-28
张红,陈嘉伟,周鹏.2016.基于改进生态足迹模型的海岛城市土地承载力评价—以舟山市为例[J].经济地理,36(6):155-160
张林波,李文华,刘孝富,等.2009.承载力理论的起源、发展与展望[J].生态学报,29(2):878-888
封志明,杨艳昭,闫慧敏,等.2017.百年来的资源环境承载力研究:从理论到实践[J].资源科学,39(3):379-395
高红丽,涂建军,杨乐.2010.城市综合承载力评价研究——以成渝经济区为例[J].西南大学学报(自然科学版),32(10):148-152
Gonzalez-Mejia A M.2012.Computing and interpreting fisher information as a metric of sustainability:regime changes in the United States air quality[J].Clean Technologies & Environmental Policy,14(5):775-788
广州市环保局.2014.2014 年广州市环境状况通报[R].广州:广州市环保局
郭志伟.2008.北京市土地资源承载力综合评价研究[J].城市发展研究,15(5):24-30
Hopton M E,Cabezas H,Campbell D,et al.2010.Development of a multidiscplinary approach to assess regional sustainability[J].International Journal of Sustainable Development & World Ecology,17(1):48-56
胡焱.2007.城市土地资源可持续承载力的评价与实证研究[D].重庆:重庆大学
孔凡文,刘亚臣,常春光.2012.城市综合承载力的内涵及测算思路[J].城市问题,(1):26-29
李东序,赵富强.2008.城市综合承载力结构模型与耦合机制研究[J].城市发展研究,15(6):37-42
廖慧璇,籍永丽,彭少麟.2016.资源环境承载力与区域可持续发展[J].生态环境学报,25(7):1253-1258
刘辉,李波,王传胜,等.2005.烟台市生态足迹分析[J].生态经济(中文版),(10):214-217
马忠强,汪林.2013.基于系统动力学的大连城市化进程中生态承载力模拟预测[J].中南林业科技大学学报,33(4):70-75
Oh K,Jeong Y,Lee D,et al.2005.Determining development density using the urban carrying capacity assessment system[J].Landscape and Urban Planning,73(1):1-15
欧弢.2017.基于空间分析的资源环境承载力研究[D].昆明:昆明理工大学
石忆邵,尹昌应,王贺封,等.2013.城市综合承载力的研究进展及展望[J].地理研究,32(1):133-145
Wackernagel M.1997.Our ecological footprint[J].Green Teacher,45:5-14
王琳.2009.长江三角洲经济区区域承载力综合预测与评价[D].北京:中国地质大学(北京)
王亚文.2006.基于状态空间法的城市生态系统承载力研究[D].西安:西北大学
文宗川,郝晓燕,巩芳,等.2009.城市生态可承载机制研究[J].生产力研究,(6):62-63
翁美娥.2013.福州城市综合承载力评价[D].福州:福建师范大学
徐琳瑜,杨志峰,李巍.2005.城市生态系统承载力理论与评价方法[J].生态学报,25(4):771-777
徐琳瑜,杨志峰.2011.城市生态系统承载力[M].北京:北京师范大学出版社
Xu X,Xu Z,Peng L,et al.2011.Water resources carrying capacity forecast of jining based on non-linear dynamics model[J].Energy Procedia,5(22):1742-1747
叶裕民.2007.解读"城市综合承载能力"[J].前线,(4):26-28
张红,陈嘉伟,周鹏.2016.基于改进生态足迹模型的海岛城市土地承载力评价—以舟山市为例[J].经济地理,36(6):155-160
张林波,李文华,刘孝富,等.2009.承载力理论的起源、发展与展望[J].生态学报,29(2):878-888
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