泸州市农业碳收支时空变化及公平性评价
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摘要
根据泸州市空间面板数据,分别采用参数估算法及IPCC清单估算法估算该市2006—2015年农业生产碳收支状况,并用生态承载系数及经济效率系数进行区域农业碳排放公平性评价。结果表明:(1)2006—2015年该市农业碳吸收量由166. 47×10~7kg增长到188. 38×10~7kg,水稻碳吸收占比最大。农业碳吸收强度由2006年的8×10~3kg·hm~(-2)上升到2015年的8. 96×10~3kg·hm~(-2),其中龙马潭区叙永县明显减弱,而泸县和合江县显著增强。(2)研究期该市农业碳排放量由144. 02×10~7kg减少到127. 71×10~7kg,其中牲畜养殖是最大排放源。农业碳排放强度由2006年的6. 92×10~3kg·hm~(-2)下降到2015年的6. 07×10~3kg·hm~(-2),其中龙马潭区、纳溪区、叙永县和古蔺县明显减弱,而泸县显著增强。(3)农业碳排放生态承载力从大到小依次为江阳>龙马潭>泸县>合江>纳溪>古蔺>叙永;农业经济效率从大到小依次为龙马潭>江阳>泸县>合江>纳溪>古蔺>叙永。(4)农业碳排放公平性聚类分析结果显示,该市北部平原地区在一定程度上分担了其他地区的农业碳减排压力,南部山区农业碳排放则加重了该市农业碳减排压力。
Based on spatial data of Luzhou City,the parameter estimation and IPCC inventory estimation methods were used to estimate the carbon budget of agricultural production in the city from 2006 to 2015. The equity of regional agricultural carbon emissions has been evaluated using the ecological carrying and economic efficiency coefficients. The results show that:(1)Within the ten years,the city's agricultural carbon absorption had increased from 166. 47×10~7 kg to188. 38×10~7 kg,while rice had the largest share of carbon sequestration. The carbon absorption intensity from agriculture rose from 8×10~3 kg·hm~(-2) in 2006 to 8. 96×10~3 kg·hm~(-2) in 2015. Among the areas in Luzhou City,carbon absorption intensity was significantly weakened in Longmatan and Xuyong,while that from Luxian and Hejiang increased significantly.(2)During the study period,the city's carbon emissions from agriculture reduced from 144. 02×10~7 kg to 127. 71×10~7 kg,of which livestock breeding was the largest source of emissions. The carbon intensity of agriculture fell from 6. 92×10~3 kg·hm~(-2) in 2006 to 6. 07×10~3 kg·hm~(-2) in 2015,with intensities from Longmatan,Naxi,Xuyong,and Gulin weakening significantly,while the intensity from Luxian significantly increased.(3)The ecological carrying capacity of agricultural carbon emissions was the largest in Jiangyang,followed by Longmatan,Luxian,Hejiang,Naxi,Gulin and Xuyong. Agricultural production efficiency ranked as following:Longmatan>Jiangyang>Luxian>Hejiang>Naxi>Gulin>Xuyong.(4)A cluster analysis of agricultural carbon emission equity shows that the northern plains to certain extent shared the pressure of other areas of the city on reducing agricultural carbon emission. But the carbon emissions from agricultural production in the southern mountainous areas of the city increased the pressure on the city for the reduction of agricultural carbon emission.
Based on spatial data of Luzhou City,the parameter estimation and IPCC inventory estimation methods were used to estimate the carbon budget of agricultural production in the city from 2006 to 2015. The equity of regional agricultural carbon emissions has been evaluated using the ecological carrying and economic efficiency coefficients. The results show that:(1)Within the ten years,the city's agricultural carbon absorption had increased from 166. 47×10~7 kg to188. 38×10~7 kg,while rice had the largest share of carbon sequestration. The carbon absorption intensity from agriculture rose from 8×10~3 kg·hm~(-2) in 2006 to 8. 96×10~3 kg·hm~(-2) in 2015. Among the areas in Luzhou City,carbon absorption intensity was significantly weakened in Longmatan and Xuyong,while that from Luxian and Hejiang increased significantly.(2)During the study period,the city's carbon emissions from agriculture reduced from 144. 02×10~7 kg to 127. 71×10~7 kg,of which livestock breeding was the largest source of emissions. The carbon intensity of agriculture fell from 6. 92×10~3 kg·hm~(-2) in 2006 to 6. 07×10~3 kg·hm~(-2) in 2015,with intensities from Longmatan,Naxi,Xuyong,and Gulin weakening significantly,while the intensity from Luxian significantly increased.(3)The ecological carrying capacity of agricultural carbon emissions was the largest in Jiangyang,followed by Longmatan,Luxian,Hejiang,Naxi,Gulin and Xuyong. Agricultural production efficiency ranked as following:Longmatan>Jiangyang>Luxian>Hejiang>Naxi>Gulin>Xuyong.(4)A cluster analysis of agricultural carbon emission equity shows that the northern plains to certain extent shared the pressure of other areas of the city on reducing agricultural carbon emission. But the carbon emissions from agricultural production in the southern mountainous areas of the city increased the pressure on the city for the reduction of agricultural carbon emission.
引文
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[3]赵其国,钱海燕.低碳经济与农业发展思考[J].生态环境学报,2009,18(5):1609-1614.[ZHAO Qi-guo,QIAN Hai-yan. Low Carbon Economy and Thinking of Agricultural Development[J].Ecology and EnvironmentalSciences,2009,18(5):1609-1614.]
[4]田云,张俊飚,吴贤荣,等.中国种植业碳汇盈余动态变化及地区差异分析:基于31个省(市、区)2000—2012年的面板数据[J].自然资源学报,2015,30(11):1885-1895.[TIAN Yun,ZHANG Jun-bia,WU Xian-rong,et al. Research on Dynamic Change and Regional Differences of China′s Planting Industry Carbon Sink Surplus[J]. Journal of Natural Resources,2015,30(11):1885-1895.]
[5]鲁春霞,谢高地,肖玉,等.我国农田生态系统碳蓄积及其变化特征研究[J].中国生态农业学报,2005,13(3):35-37.[LU Chun-xia,XIE Gao-di,XIAO Yu,et al. Carbon Fixation by Farmland Ecosystems in China and Their Spatial and Temporal Characteristics[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture,2005,13(3):35-37.]
[6]冉锦成,马惠兰,苏洋.西北五省农业碳排放测算及碳减排潜力研究[J].江西农业大学学报,2017,39(3):623-632.[RAN Jin-cheng,Ma Hui-lan,SU Yang. A Study on Agricultural Carbon Emission and Carbon Emission Reduction Potential in Five Provinces in Northwest China[J]. Acta Agriculture Universities Jiangxiensis,2017,39(3):623-632.]
[7]罗怀良,袁道先,陈浩.南川市三泉镇岩溶区农田生态系统植被碳库的动态变化[J].中国岩溶,2008,27(4):382-387.[LUO Huai-liang,YUAN Dao-xian,CHEN Hao. Regime of Vegetation Carbon Pool in Karst Farm and Ecosystem in Sanquan Town,Nanchuan City[J]. Carsologica Sinica,2008,27(4):382-387.]
[8]张开,罗怀良,王睿.安岳县2008—2012年农田作物植被碳储量及其空间分布[J].西南农业学报,2017,30(8):1860-1866.[ZHANG Kai,LUO Huai-liang,WANG Rui. Carbon Storage of Main Crops and Its Distribution During Last 5 Years(2008-2012)in Anyue County Sichuan Province[J]. Southwest China Journal of Agricultural Sciences,2017,30(8):1860-1866.]
[9]田云,张俊飚.中国农业生产净碳效应分异研究[J].自然资源学报,2013,28(8):1298-1309.[TIAN Yu,ZHANG Jun-biao. Regional Differentiation Research on Net Carbon Effect of Agricultural Production in China[J]. Journal of Natural Resources,2013,28(8):1298-1309.]
[10]廖仁郡,陈玉成.重庆市规模化畜禽养殖氨排放特征及减排策略研究[J].中国生态农业学报,2017,25(5):769-777.[LIAO Ren-jun,CHEN Yu-cheng. Characteristics of Ammonia Emission From Large-Scale Livestock/Poultry Breeding and Its Mitigation Countermeasures in Chongqing[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture,2017,25(5):769-777.]
[11]泸州市统计局.泸州统计年鉴2016[Z].北京:中国统计出版社,2016.[Luzhou Bureau of Statistics. Luzhou Statistical Yearbook2016[Z]. Beijing:ChinaStatisticsPress,2016,218-260.]
[12]罗怀良.川中丘陵地区近55年来农田生态系统植被碳储量动态研究:以四川省盐亭县为例[J].自然资源学报,2009,24(2):251-258.[LUO Huai-liang. Dynamic of Vegetation Carbon Storage of Farmland Ecosystem in Hilly Area of Central Sichuan Basin During the Last 55 Years:A Case Study of Yanting County,Sichuan Province[J]. Journal of Natural Resources,2009,24(2):251-258.]
[13]宋德勇,卢忠宝.中国碳排放影响因素分解及其周期性波动研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2009,19(3):18-24.[SONG De-yong,LU Zhong-bao. The Factor Decomposition and Periodic Fluctuations of Carbon Emission in China[J]. China Population,Resources and Environment,2009,19(3):18-24.]
[14]田云,张俊飚.中国省级区域农业碳排放公平性研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2013,23(11):36-44.[TIAN Yu,ZHANG Jun-biao. Fairness Research of Agricultural Carbon Emissions Between Provincial Regions in China[J]. China Population,Resources and Environment,2013,23(11):36-44.]
[15]罗怀良.中国农田作物植被碳储量研究进展[J].生态环境学报,2014,23(4):692-697.[LUO Huai-liang. Advances on Carbon Storage in Crops of China[J]. Ecology and Environmental Sciences,2014,23(4):692-697.]
[16]罗怀良,朱波,陈国阶.川中丘陵地区主要植被含碳率研究:以四川省盐亭县为例[C]//第九届中国青年土壤科学工作者学术讨论会暨第四届中国青年植物营养与肥料科学工作者学术讨论会论文集.成都:《西南农业学报》编辑部,2004:113-116.[LU0 Huai-liang,ZHU Bo,CHEN Guo-jie. Study on Carbon Content of Main Vegetation in Hilly Areas of Central Sichuan Basin:A Case Study of Yanting County,Sichuan Province[C]//Proceedings of the 9th China Youth Soil Science Workers Symposium and the 4th China Youth Plant Nutrition and Fertilizer Science Symposium. Chengdu:Editorial Department of Southwest China Journal of Agricultural Sciences,2004:113-116.]
[17]韩召迎,孟亚利,徐娇,等.区域农田生态系统碳足迹时空差异分析:以江苏省为案例[J].农业环境科学学报,2012,31(5):1034-1041.[HAN Zhao-ying,MENG Ya-li,XU Jiao,et al.Temporal and Spatial Difference in Carbon Footprint of Regional Farmland Ecosystems:Taking Jiangsu Province as a Case[J].Journal of Agro-Environment Science,2012,31(5):1034-1041.]
[18] IPCC. 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories[EB/OL].[2017-12-20]. https://www. ipcc-nggip. iges.or. jp/public/2006gl/index. html.
[19]田云,李波,张俊飚.我国农地利用碳排放的阶段特征及因素分解研究[J].中国地质大学学报(社会科学版),2011,11(1):59-63.[TIAN Yun,LI Bo,ZHANG Jun-biao. Research on Stage Characteristics and Factor Decomposition of Agricultural Land Carbon Emission in China[J]. Journal of China University of Geosciences(Social Sciences Edition),2011,11(1):59-63.]
[20]段华平,张悦,赵建波,等.中国农田生态系统的碳足迹分析[J].水土保持学报,2011,25(5):203-208.[DUAN Hua-ping,ZHANG Yue,ZHAO Jian-bo,et al. Carbon Footprint Analysis of Farmland Ecosystem in China[J]. Journal of Soil and Water Conservation,2011,25(5):203-208.]
[21]孙园园,孙永健,王锐婷,等. DNDC模型对川中丘陵去稻田CH4、N2O排放的模拟对比分析[J].生态环境学报,2011,20(6/7):1003-1010.[SUN Yuan-yuan,SUN Yong-jian,WANG Rui-ting,et al. Research of Tillage-Cropping Systems on CH4and N2O Emission From Permanently Flooded Rice Fields in a Central Sichuan Hilly Area of Southwest China[J]. Ecology and Environmental Sciences,2011,20(6/7):1003-1010.]
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