农业转移人口的超大城市偏好与家庭联合迁移决策
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摘要
夫妻双方同时外出务工以及在超大城市集聚是农业转移人口城乡转移的重要趋势。基于2014年全国流动人口动态监测调查数据,利用多元选择模型,考察了已婚农业转移人口的超大城市偏好与七类联合迁移决策,得到的主要结论有:夫妻同时外出务工是家庭迁移的主要模式,相对于妻子,丈夫外出务工的概率更高,且更加偏好超大城市流动;迁移至超大城市和其他城市用于家庭照料的时间投入和经济回报是有差异的,随着家庭孩子数量增加,夫妻迁移至两类城市的概率表现出不同的变化趋势,其中丈夫迁移至超大城市、丈夫迁移至其他城市、妻子迁移至其他城市的概率均呈现先下降后上升的"U"型特征;和老一代农业转移人口相比,在家庭孩子数量相同的情况下,新生代农业转移人口家庭夫妻双方外出务工的概率均更高,且丈夫迁移至超大城市的比例更大。
Both husband and wife moving out for work together and gathering in megacities are important trends of migrants' rural-urban migration. Based on the 2014 national mobile population dynamic monitoring survey data,this paper uses a multiple selection model to investigate the megacities preference and seven kinds of joint migration decision of the married migrants. The main conclusions are as follows: 1) The husband and wife moving out for work together and is the main mode of rural-urban migration. The migration probability of husband is higher than wife,meanwhile,both husband and wife are more preferring megacities flows. 2) The time input and economic return are different between the megacities and other cities for family care. With the increase number of children in family,the probability of husband and wife migration to the two types of cities shows a different trend,in which the probability of the migration to both type cities of husband and the migration to other cities of wife all present as "U"type. 3) Comparing with the migration of old generation,the migration probabilities of both new generation spouses are higher than old-generation in the case of the same number of children in the family; Meanwhile,the migration ratio to the megacities of husband is greater.
Both husband and wife moving out for work together and gathering in megacities are important trends of migrants' rural-urban migration. Based on the 2014 national mobile population dynamic monitoring survey data,this paper uses a multiple selection model to investigate the megacities preference and seven kinds of joint migration decision of the married migrants. The main conclusions are as follows: 1) The husband and wife moving out for work together and is the main mode of rural-urban migration. The migration probability of husband is higher than wife,meanwhile,both husband and wife are more preferring megacities flows. 2) The time input and economic return are different between the megacities and other cities for family care. With the increase number of children in family,the probability of husband and wife migration to the two types of cities shows a different trend,in which the probability of the migration to both type cities of husband and the migration to other cities of wife all present as "U"type. 3) Comparing with the migration of old generation,the migration probabilities of both new generation spouses are higher than old-generation in the case of the same number of children in the family; Meanwhile,the migration ratio to the megacities of husband is greater.
引文
[1]张耀军,岑俏.中国人口空间流动格局与省际流动影响因素研究[J].人口研究,2014(5):54-71.
[2]孙中伟.农民工大城市定居偏好与新型城镇化的推进路径研究[J].人口研究,2015(5):72-86.
[3]BRAUW A D,HUANG J,ROZELLE S,et al. The evolution of China’s rural labor markets during the reforms[J]. Journal of Comparative Economics,2002,30(2):329-353.
[4]朱明芬.农民工家庭人口迁移模式及影响因素分析[J].中国农村经济,2009(2):67-76.
[5]LEWIS W A. Economic development with unlimited supplies of labour[J]. Manchester School,1954,22(2):139-191.
[6]TIEBOUT C M. A pure theory of local expenditures[J]. Journal of Political Economy,1956,64(5):416-424.
[7]LEE E S. A theory of migration[J]. Demography,1966,3(1):47-57.
[8]HARRIS J R,TODARO M P. Migration,unemployment and development:a two-sector analysis[J]. American Economic Review,1970,60(1):126-142.
[9]MUNSHI K. Networks in the modern economy:Mexican migrants in the U. S. labor market[J]. Quarterly Journal of Economics,2003,118(2):549-599.
[10]赵忠.中国的城乡移民——我们知道什么,我们还应该知道什么?[J].经济学(季刊),2004,3(3):517-536.
[11]严善平.城市劳动力市场中的人员流动及其决定机制——兼析大城市的新二元结构[J].管理世界,2006(8):8-17.
[12]白南生,李靖.农民工就业流动性研究[J].管理世界,2008(7):70-76.
[13]约翰·奈特,邓曲恒,李实.中国的民工荒与农村剩余劳动力[J].管理世界,2011(11):12-27.
[14]夏怡然,苏锦红,黄伟.流动人口向哪里集聚?——流入地城市特征及其变动趋势[J].人口与经济,2015(3):13-22.
[15]段成荣,杨舸.我国流动人口的流入地分布变动趋势研究[J].人口研究,2009(6):1-12.
[16]童玉芬,王莹莹.中国流动人口的选择:为何北上广如此受青睐?——基于个体成本收益分析[J].人口研究,2015(4):49-56.
[17]侯慧丽.城市公共服务的供给差异及其对人口流动的影响[J].中国人口科学,2016(1):118-125.
[18]MENG L,ZHAO M Q,LIWU D S. Joint migration decisions of married couples in rural China[J]. China Economic Review,2014,38:285-305.
[19]刘涛,齐元静,曹广忠.中国流动人口空间格局演变机制及城镇化效应——基于2000和2010年人口普查分县数据的分析[J].地理学报,2015(4):567-581.
[20]劳昕,沈体雁.中国地级以上城市人口流动空间模式变化——基于2000和2010年人口普查数据的分析[J].中国人口科学,2015(1):15-28.
[21]DURANTON G,PUGA D. Micro-foundations of urban agglomeration economies[J]. Social Science Electronic Publishing,2006,4(4):2063-2117.
[22]PUGA D. The magnitude and causes of agglomeration economies[J]. Journal of Regional Science,2010,50(1):203-219.
[23]COMBES P P,DURANTON G,GOBILLON L. Spatial wage disparities:sorting matters![J]. Journal of Urban Economics,2008,63(2):723-742.
[24]DAVIS D R,DINGEL J I. The comparative advantage of cities[R]. Nber Working Papers,2014.
[25]GLAESER E L. Learning in cities[J]. Journal of Urban Economics,2000,46(2):254-277.
[26]DURANTON G,PUGA D. Nursery cities:urban diversity,process innovation,and the life cycle of products[J]. American Economic Review,2001,91(5):1454-1477.
[27]李强.农民工举家迁移决策的理论分析及检验[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014(6):65-70.
[28]ZHAO Y. Leaving the countryside:rural-to-urban migration decisions in China.[J]. American Economic Review,1999:89(2):281-286.
[29]MENG X. Labor market outcomes and reforms in China[J]. Journal of Economic Perspectives,2012,26(4):75-101.
[30]DAVANZO J. Why families move:a model of the geographic mobility of married couples[J]. Population&Development Review,1977,3(3):344.
[31]SANDELL S H. Women and the economics of family migration[J]. Review of Economics&Statistics,1977,59(4):406-414.
[32]MINCER J. Family migration decisions[J]. Journal of Political Economy,1978,86(5):749-773.
[33]LUCAS R E. Internal migration in developing countries[M]//ROSEN Z,WEIG M Q,STARK O. Handbook of Family and Population Economics,Vol. IB. Amsterdam:Elsevier Science B. V.,1997:721-798.
[34]TAYLOR J E,MARTIN P L. Human capital:migration and rural population change[J]. Handbook of Agricultural Economics,2001,1(1):457-511.
[35]邓曲恒.农村居民举家迁移的影响因素:基于混合Logit模型的经验分析[J].中国农村经济,2013(10):17-29.
[36]杨菊华,陈传波.流动人口家庭化的现状与特点:流动过程特征分析[J].人口与发展,2013(3):2-13.
[37]汪建华.城市规模、公共服务与农民工的家庭同住趋势[J].青年研究,2017(3):31-41.
[38]余运江,高向东,郭庆.新生代乡—城流动人口社会融合研究——基于上海的调查分析[J].人口与经济,2012(1):57-64.
(1)根据国家统计局《2016年农民工监测调查报告》的数据统计,全部农民工中,未婚的占19. 8%;有配偶的占77. 9%。
(1)夫妻均未在流入地务工指夫妻双方由于婚嫁、拆迁、投亲、学习、参军等原因同时进行流动。
(2)根据各省市统计年鉴数据,2014年末,北上广深津渝六个超大城市城镇常住总人口数为6385万,占全国总人口的5.68%。
[2]孙中伟.农民工大城市定居偏好与新型城镇化的推进路径研究[J].人口研究,2015(5):72-86.
[3]BRAUW A D,HUANG J,ROZELLE S,et al. The evolution of China’s rural labor markets during the reforms[J]. Journal of Comparative Economics,2002,30(2):329-353.
[4]朱明芬.农民工家庭人口迁移模式及影响因素分析[J].中国农村经济,2009(2):67-76.
[5]LEWIS W A. Economic development with unlimited supplies of labour[J]. Manchester School,1954,22(2):139-191.
[6]TIEBOUT C M. A pure theory of local expenditures[J]. Journal of Political Economy,1956,64(5):416-424.
[7]LEE E S. A theory of migration[J]. Demography,1966,3(1):47-57.
[8]HARRIS J R,TODARO M P. Migration,unemployment and development:a two-sector analysis[J]. American Economic Review,1970,60(1):126-142.
[9]MUNSHI K. Networks in the modern economy:Mexican migrants in the U. S. labor market[J]. Quarterly Journal of Economics,2003,118(2):549-599.
[10]赵忠.中国的城乡移民——我们知道什么,我们还应该知道什么?[J].经济学(季刊),2004,3(3):517-536.
[11]严善平.城市劳动力市场中的人员流动及其决定机制——兼析大城市的新二元结构[J].管理世界,2006(8):8-17.
[12]白南生,李靖.农民工就业流动性研究[J].管理世界,2008(7):70-76.
[13]约翰·奈特,邓曲恒,李实.中国的民工荒与农村剩余劳动力[J].管理世界,2011(11):12-27.
[14]夏怡然,苏锦红,黄伟.流动人口向哪里集聚?——流入地城市特征及其变动趋势[J].人口与经济,2015(3):13-22.
[15]段成荣,杨舸.我国流动人口的流入地分布变动趋势研究[J].人口研究,2009(6):1-12.
[16]童玉芬,王莹莹.中国流动人口的选择:为何北上广如此受青睐?——基于个体成本收益分析[J].人口研究,2015(4):49-56.
[17]侯慧丽.城市公共服务的供给差异及其对人口流动的影响[J].中国人口科学,2016(1):118-125.
[18]MENG L,ZHAO M Q,LIWU D S. Joint migration decisions of married couples in rural China[J]. China Economic Review,2014,38:285-305.
[19]刘涛,齐元静,曹广忠.中国流动人口空间格局演变机制及城镇化效应——基于2000和2010年人口普查分县数据的分析[J].地理学报,2015(4):567-581.
[20]劳昕,沈体雁.中国地级以上城市人口流动空间模式变化——基于2000和2010年人口普查数据的分析[J].中国人口科学,2015(1):15-28.
[21]DURANTON G,PUGA D. Micro-foundations of urban agglomeration economies[J]. Social Science Electronic Publishing,2006,4(4):2063-2117.
[22]PUGA D. The magnitude and causes of agglomeration economies[J]. Journal of Regional Science,2010,50(1):203-219.
[23]COMBES P P,DURANTON G,GOBILLON L. Spatial wage disparities:sorting matters![J]. Journal of Urban Economics,2008,63(2):723-742.
[24]DAVIS D R,DINGEL J I. The comparative advantage of cities[R]. Nber Working Papers,2014.
[25]GLAESER E L. Learning in cities[J]. Journal of Urban Economics,2000,46(2):254-277.
[26]DURANTON G,PUGA D. Nursery cities:urban diversity,process innovation,and the life cycle of products[J]. American Economic Review,2001,91(5):1454-1477.
[27]李强.农民工举家迁移决策的理论分析及检验[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014(6):65-70.
[28]ZHAO Y. Leaving the countryside:rural-to-urban migration decisions in China.[J]. American Economic Review,1999:89(2):281-286.
[29]MENG X. Labor market outcomes and reforms in China[J]. Journal of Economic Perspectives,2012,26(4):75-101.
[30]DAVANZO J. Why families move:a model of the geographic mobility of married couples[J]. Population&Development Review,1977,3(3):344.
[31]SANDELL S H. Women and the economics of family migration[J]. Review of Economics&Statistics,1977,59(4):406-414.
[32]MINCER J. Family migration decisions[J]. Journal of Political Economy,1978,86(5):749-773.
[33]LUCAS R E. Internal migration in developing countries[M]//ROSEN Z,WEIG M Q,STARK O. Handbook of Family and Population Economics,Vol. IB. Amsterdam:Elsevier Science B. V.,1997:721-798.
[34]TAYLOR J E,MARTIN P L. Human capital:migration and rural population change[J]. Handbook of Agricultural Economics,2001,1(1):457-511.
[35]邓曲恒.农村居民举家迁移的影响因素:基于混合Logit模型的经验分析[J].中国农村经济,2013(10):17-29.
[36]杨菊华,陈传波.流动人口家庭化的现状与特点:流动过程特征分析[J].人口与发展,2013(3):2-13.
[37]汪建华.城市规模、公共服务与农民工的家庭同住趋势[J].青年研究,2017(3):31-41.
[38]余运江,高向东,郭庆.新生代乡—城流动人口社会融合研究——基于上海的调查分析[J].人口与经济,2012(1):57-64.
(1)根据国家统计局《2016年农民工监测调查报告》的数据统计,全部农民工中,未婚的占19. 8%;有配偶的占77. 9%。
(1)夫妻均未在流入地务工指夫妻双方由于婚嫁、拆迁、投亲、学习、参军等原因同时进行流动。
(2)根据各省市统计年鉴数据,2014年末,北上广深津渝六个超大城市城镇常住总人口数为6385万,占全国总人口的5.68%。
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