新疆生产建设兵团2001—2015年生态足迹及其驱动力因子分析
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摘要
基于生态足迹模型对新疆生产建设兵团2001—2015年生态足迹进行计算,并运用偏最小二乘回归以及Pearson相关分析两种方法分析生态足迹的经济社会驱动力因子。结果显示:2001—2015年,兵团人均生态足迹从2.765 hm~2·cap~(-1)增加到14.329 hm~2·cap~(-1),人均生态承载力保持较低稳定状态,人均生态赤字从0.355 hm~2·cap~(-1)增加到11.670 hm~2·cap~(-1)。表明兵团经济快速增长过程中,生态压力持续增加,可持续发展面临挑战。人均GDP、第二产业增加值、城镇居民人均可支配收入、社会消费品零售总额、城镇化水平、第一产业增加值对兵团人均生态足迹变化有显著正向驱动作用,而万元GDP生态足迹、第三产业增加值比重则表现出对人均生态足迹相对较弱的逆向驱动作用。调整产业结构以及保证生态用水是降低生态足迹,提高生态承载力,实现兵团可持续发展的有效途径。
Based on ecological footprint model,the ecological footprint of the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps(XPCC)was calculated from 2001 to 2015.Its social and economic driving forces were analyzed using partial least-squares regression and Pearson correlation methods.The results showed that the per capita ecological footprint of XPCC increased from 2.765 hm~2·cap~(-1) to 14.329 hm~2·cap~(-1),and the per capita ecological carrying capacity remained stable.The per capita ecological deficit increased from 0.355 hm~2·cap~(-1) to 11.670 hm~2·cap~(-1),which indicated the ecological pressure continued to rise and the sustainable development had been facing challenge during the period of rapid economic growth.Per capita GDP,the added value of second industry,average per capita disposable income total retail sales of consumer goods,urbanization level and the added value of the primary industry had significantly positive driving effect to per capita ecological footprint.The proportion of the added value of the third industry and per ten thousand Chinese Yuan GDP had a relatively weak negative effect to per capita ecological footprint.Adjusting industrial structure and adding water for ecological usage was an effective way for XPCC to reduce ecological footprint,improve ecological carrying capacity and achieve sustainable development.
Based on ecological footprint model,the ecological footprint of the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps(XPCC)was calculated from 2001 to 2015.Its social and economic driving forces were analyzed using partial least-squares regression and Pearson correlation methods.The results showed that the per capita ecological footprint of XPCC increased from 2.765 hm~2·cap~(-1) to 14.329 hm~2·cap~(-1),and the per capita ecological carrying capacity remained stable.The per capita ecological deficit increased from 0.355 hm~2·cap~(-1) to 11.670 hm~2·cap~(-1),which indicated the ecological pressure continued to rise and the sustainable development had been facing challenge during the period of rapid economic growth.Per capita GDP,the added value of second industry,average per capita disposable income total retail sales of consumer goods,urbanization level and the added value of the primary industry had significantly positive driving effect to per capita ecological footprint.The proportion of the added value of the third industry and per ten thousand Chinese Yuan GDP had a relatively weak negative effect to per capita ecological footprint.Adjusting industrial structure and adding water for ecological usage was an effective way for XPCC to reduce ecological footprint,improve ecological carrying capacity and achieve sustainable development.
引文
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[20]杨娟,王昌全,李冰,等.基于遗传神经网络的成都市人均生态足迹预测[J].生态学报,2009,29(1):359-367.
[21]王晓娟.兵团经济发展与资源、环境相关关系实证分析[J].新疆农垦经济,2009(11):25-30.
[22]徐中民,张志强.甘肃省1998年生态足迹计算与分析[J].地理学报,2000,55(5):607-616.
[23]吴开亚,王玲杰.生态足迹及其影响因子的偏最小二乘回归模型与应用[J].资源科学,2006,28(6):182-188.
[24]王惠文.偏最小二乘回归方法及其应用[M].北京:国防工业出版社,1999:200-207.
[25]张娜,牛翠萍.新疆经济可持续发展的动态演进分析-基于生态足迹模型[J].石河子大学学报,2017,31(06):11-18.
[26]王鹏程,吴洁.兵团煤炭资源开发利用现状及对策研究[J].时代经贸旬刊,2008,6(12):96-96.
[27]刘建兴,顾晓薇,李广军,等.中国经济发展与生态足迹的关系研究[J].资源科学,2005,27(5):33-39.
[2]WACKERNAGEL Aackernagel M,REES W E.Our Ecological Footprint:Reducing Human Impact on the Earth[M].Gabriola Island:New Society Publishers,1996:2-17.
[3]杨屹,加涛.21世纪以来陕西生态足迹和承载力变化[J].生态学报,2015,35(24):7987-7997.
[4]黄宝荣,崔书红,李颖明.中国2000~2010年生态足迹变化特征及影响因素[J].环境科学,2016,37(2):420-426.
[5]张爱菊,张白汝,向书坚.中部6省生态足迹的测算与比较分析[J].生态环境学报,2013,22(4):625-631.
[6]田龙,张青峰,张翔,等.基于改进生态足迹模型的西北地区生态可持续性评价[J].干旱区资源与环境,2015,29(8):76-81.
[7]毕安平,朱鹤健,王德光.基于区域产量法测算的福建省农业生态足迹[J].自然资源学报,2010,25(6):967-977.
[8]崔维军,周飞雪,徐常萍.中国重化工业生态足迹估算方法研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2010,20(8):137-141.
[9]冯银,成金华,申俊.中国省域能源生态足迹空间效应研究[J].中国地质大学学报,2017,17(3):85-96.
[10]肖建红,于庆东,刘康,等.海岛旅游地生态安全与可持续发展评估-以舟山群岛为例[J].地理学报,2011,66(6):842-852.
[11]王中航,周传斌,王如松,等.中国典型特大城市交通的生态足迹评价[J].生态学杂志,2015,34(4):1129-1135.
[12]谭秀娟,郑钦玉.我国水资源生态足迹分析与预测[J].生态学报,2009,29(7):3559-3568.
[13]姚争,冯长春,阚俊杰.基于生态足迹理论的低碳校园研究-以北京大学生态足迹为例[J].资源科学,2011,33(6):1163-1170.
[14]邓慧丽,苗红,孔云霄,等.宁夏生态移民家庭碳足迹调查与影响因素研究[J].水土保持研究,2016,23(4):154-160.
[15]李明明,丁忠义,牟守国,等.徐州市主城区个人生态足迹空间变异性研究[J].自然资源学报,2010,25(4):594-603.
[16]杨屹,朱彦臻,张景乾.关中-天水经济区生态足迹变化驱动因素[J].生态学报,2017,37(21):7061-7067.
[17]张学勤,陈成忠,林振山.中国生态足迹的多尺度变化及驱动因素分析[J].资源科学,2010,32(10):2005-2011.
[18]周静,管卫华.基于生态足迹方法的南京可持续发展研究[J].生态学报,2012,32(20):6471-6480.
[19]张佩佩,董锁成,李泽红,等.甘南藏族自治州生态足迹与生态承载力分析[J].生态科学,2017,36(2):171-178.
[20]杨娟,王昌全,李冰,等.基于遗传神经网络的成都市人均生态足迹预测[J].生态学报,2009,29(1):359-367.
[21]王晓娟.兵团经济发展与资源、环境相关关系实证分析[J].新疆农垦经济,2009(11):25-30.
[22]徐中民,张志强.甘肃省1998年生态足迹计算与分析[J].地理学报,2000,55(5):607-616.
[23]吴开亚,王玲杰.生态足迹及其影响因子的偏最小二乘回归模型与应用[J].资源科学,2006,28(6):182-188.
[24]王惠文.偏最小二乘回归方法及其应用[M].北京:国防工业出版社,1999:200-207.
[25]张娜,牛翠萍.新疆经济可持续发展的动态演进分析-基于生态足迹模型[J].石河子大学学报,2017,31(06):11-18.
[26]王鹏程,吴洁.兵团煤炭资源开发利用现状及对策研究[J].时代经贸旬刊,2008,6(12):96-96.
[27]刘建兴,顾晓薇,李广军,等.中国经济发展与生态足迹的关系研究[J].资源科学,2005,27(5):33-39.