作者：陈锋 ; 康世昌 ; 张拥军 ; 游庆龙

机构：中国科学院青藏高原研究所;中国科学院冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室;

关键词：气候变化;;冰川;;湖泊;;纳木错流域

摘要：利用纳木错流域及其周边地区气象资料、地形图、遥感资料以及野外实地观测资料,对该流域过去37年来气候变化特征以及冰川、湖泊变化过程进行了分析。结果表明,自1970年以来,纳木错区域气温上升趋势明显,其中冬季升温幅度高于夏季;降水量变化冬、夏两季均呈增加趋势,但冬季增加量不显著。在整体升温的背景下,纳木错流域冰川整体呈退缩趋势。1970~2007年间,流域内冰川面积减少37.1km2,占流域冰川面积的18.2%,年变化率为-1.0km2/a。流域内扎当冰川和拉弄冰川末端GPS观测表明,1970~2008年间冰川末端分别退缩381.8m和489.5m,年均退缩量为10.3m和13.4m。1970~2007年间,纳木错湖面积增加了72.6km2,增加速率为2.0km2/a。1970~1991年、1991~2000年和2000~2007年三个阶段的年增加速率不断增大,分别为1.1、2.8、3.4km2/a;湖泊水位在夏季升高非常显著,与湖泊面积的扩张是一致的。

年：2009

出版单位：山地学报

作者：游庆龙 ; 康世昌 ; 吴艳红 ; 闫宇平

机构：Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research CAS,Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research CAS,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research CAS,National Climate Center,,Beijing 100085 China Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China,Beijing 100085 China State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science Chinese Academy of Sciences Lanzhou 730000 China,Beijing 100101 China,Beijing 100081 China

摘要：The Yarlung Zangbo River (YR) is the highest great river in the world, and its basin is one of the centers of human economic activity in Tibet. Using 10 meteorological stations over the YR basin in 1961–2005, the spatial and temporal characteristics of temperature and precipitation as well as potential evapotranspiration are analyzed. The results are as follows. (1) The annual and four seasonal mean air temperature shows statistically significant increasing trend, the tendency is more significant in winter and fall. The warming in Lhasa river basin is most significant. (2) The precipitation is decreasing from the 1960s to the 1980s and increasing since the 1980s. From 1961 to 2005, the annual and four seasonal mean precipitation is increasing but not statistically significant, especially in fall and spring. The increasing precipitation rates are more pronounced in Niyangqu and Palong Zangbo river basins, the closer to the upper YR is, the less precipitation increasing rate would be. (3) The annual and four seasonal mean potential evapotranspiration has decreased, especially after the 1980s, and most of it happens in winter and spring. The decreasing trend is most significant in the middle YR and Nianchu river basin. (4) Compared with the Mt. Qomolangma region, Tibetan Plateau, China and global average, the magnitudes of warming trend over the YR basin since the 1970s exceed those areas in the same period, and compared with the Tibetan Plateau, the magnitudes of precipitation increasing and potential evapotranspiration decreasing are larger, suggesting that the YR basin is one of the most sensitive areas to global warming.

年：2007

出版单位：Journal of Geographical Sciences